By Matija Šerić
With all due respect to the Eastern Conference, where high-level basketball is also being played, the Western Conference represents the very elite of the NBA. Basketball in the West is more competitive, intense, and dramatic—leaving fans breathless. No team will be handed easy wins here. Below are predictions for the first-round matchups.
Oklahoma vs Phoenix
After winning last year’s NBA title, Oklahoma finished first in the West with a 64–18 record despite injuries to Jalen Williams, SGA, Chet Holmgren, and others. Their first-round opponent will be Phoenix. The Suns secured their playoff spot through the play-in tournament—losing first to Portland (110–114), but then defeating Golden State 111–96 for another chance. That may well be their ceiling.
If the Thunder play even at 70% of their capacity, it should be enough. In a way, they’ve been resting over the last two weeks without a full roster.
Much will depend on their superstar SGA. If he performs at his usual level, Oklahoma will be nearly unstoppable. His offensive game is a joy to watch—scoring from all areas: beyond the arc, mid-range, and inside the paint. His dynamism could torment the Suns’ defense. Dillon Brooks, Devin Booker, Jordan Goodwin, and Ryan Dunn will need to deliver defensive performances of the season—perhaps even their careers—to slow him down, along with Oklahoma’s other sharpshooters like Aaron Wiggins and Luguentz Dort.
Although Phoenix is a strong defensive team, they will need something extraordinary to stop this offense. On the other end, Booker will require more support, as OKC is arguably the best defensive team in the league. The Suns’ best chance lies in three-point shooting, which is Oklahoma’s relative weakness defensively.
Prediction: Oklahoma wins comfortably in four or five games. Anything else would be a major upset.
San Antonio vs Portland
The Spurs have been one of the most pleasant surprises of the season with a 62–20 record, while the Trail Blazers barely made the playoffs. This 2nd vs 7th seed matchup is only slightly more competitive than the 1st vs 8th.
Under coach Mitch Johnson, San Antonio has impressed all season. Victor Wembanyama, Julian Champagnie, Devin Vassell, Stephon Castle, and De’Aaron Fox form a dynamic and versatile starting five. Their fast, energetic, and modern style of play is led by Wembanyama—a 224 cm phenomenon who dominates both inside and from beyond the arc.
He averaged 25 points, 11.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists, and multiple blocks per game. This will be his first playoff appearance, where he could emerge as Defensive Player of the Year. However, lack of playoff experience could be a weakness for San Antonio, as many players have never been in this environment.
For Portland, Deni Avdija is the key figure, posting career highs across multiple categories. Alongside him, Donovan Clingan, Jerami Grant, Toumani Camara, and veteran Jrue Holiday bring talent and toughness. The Blazers are particularly strong in second-chance points, scoring 16% of their points from offensive rebounds.
However, they now face a Spurs team that leads the league in offensive rebounding—making this strength less impactful.
Prediction: Spurs take the series in four or five games.
Denver vs Minnesota
The 3rd vs 6th seed matchup between the Nuggets and Timberwolves promises excitement. Denver finished third (54–28) despite numerous injuries, while Minnesota faced similar challenges. Denver won three out of four regular-season matchups.
Game 1 has already been played, with Denver winning 116–105. Nikola Jokić led the way with a triple-double (25 points, 13 rebounds, 11 assists). The game was highly physical—Jokić even suffered a bloody nose. Jamal Murray added 30 points, while Aaron Gordon contributed 17.
For Minnesota, Anthony Edwards scored 22 points, with balanced contributions from others. The game turned in the third quarter when Denver held Minnesota scoreless for four minutes.
Jokić remains Denver’s ultimate advantage, arguably the most versatile player in the league. He averaged 27.7 points, 12.9 rebounds, and 10.7 assists this season. Murray is also having a career year.
Still, Minnesota has a chance. Edwards and Julius Randle must deliver, while Naz Reid needs to elevate his offensive game. The Timberwolves’ physicality and intensity—especially from players like McDaniels—could be key factors.
Prediction: Denver wins, but not easily—likely in five or six games.
Lakers vs Houston
The 4th vs 5th seed matchup between the Los Angeles Lakers and Houston Rockets could be the most evenly matched series of the first round. The Lakers secured home-court advantage with a 53–29 record, just ahead of Houston’s 52–30.
In Game 1, the Lakers won 107–98 despite missing Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves, while Houston was without Kevin Durant. Surprisingly, the Lakers adapted better. Role players stepped up—Luke Kennard scored 27, Deandre Ayton had 19 points and 11 rebounds, Marcus Smart added 15 points and 8 assists, while LeBron James delivered 19 points, 8 rebounds, and 13 assists.
Houston struggled, especially from the field (37.6%). Their starters—Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun, and Amen Thompson—couldn’t carry the load alone. Coach Ime Udoka’s short rotation also raised questions.
Despite the Game 1 loss, many analysts still favor Houston. Dončić may return in May, while Durant could be back as soon as the next game. With a healthy Durant, the Rockets arguably have the stronger roster—especially if the Lakers remain without key players.
Houston plays at a slower pace, often scoring late in possessions, which could challenge the Lakers’ defense.
Prediction: A long, intense series—possibly six or seven games. Slight edge to Houston if Durant returns at full strength.
