By Matija Šerić
The days have arrived. It is spring. April. Birds are singing, butterflies are flying, and grass is pushing through the wet soil. Long sleeves are slowly being replaced by short ones. But alongside natural changes, spring brings other benefits as well. The NBA playoffs have finally arrived. Many would say this is the best part of basketball—and they would essentially be right. When the NBA is played properly (competitive, attractive, precise basketball), there is no real competition. In this two-part analysis, we will provide projections for the first round of both the Eastern and Western Conferences.
Detroit – Orlando
In the matchup between the first and eighth seed in the East, the Pistons are clear favorites against the Magic. Interestingly, neither team has won a playoff series in more than 15 years, so both will be hungry for success.
Orlando barely made the playoffs—they lost to the 76ers in the first play-in game but then defeated the Hornets 121:90. During the regular season, the two teams split their four meetings 2–2. Still, it is clear that Orlando does not match up well against Detroit.
The Franz Wagner–Paolo Banchero duo carries huge responsibility. Their performance will determine how competitive Orlando can be. It has been a difficult season for Wagner, who was limited to 34 games due to injury. Still, both he and Banchero must play their best basketball, especially offensively (the Magic’s main weakness), to stay competitive. Contributions from Desmond Bane and others will also be crucial.
But realistically, everything depends on Detroit. They enter the playoffs under heavy pressure after winning the Eastern Conference, and expectations are sky-high.
Team leader Cade Cunningham is not entering the playoffs at 100%. As we know, on March 17 he suffered a collapsed left lung, which made him questionable for the rest of the season. However, he played a major role in the last three games despite missing three weeks. Detroit is simply not the same team with and without Cunningham.
Jalen Duren is also extremely important. While the star guard was out, he took over responsibility. In 70 games, he averaged 19.5 points, 10.5 rebounds, and two assists.
Detroit’s strong roster—Duren, Tobias Harris, Ausar Thompson, Duncan Robinson, and Cunningham—should not have too many problems with Orlando. A win in five or six games is the most realistic outcome.
Boston – Philadelphia
Boston, the second seed in the conference, is the clear favorite against seventh-seeded Philadelphia.
The 76ers defeated the Magic 109:97 in the play-in, salvaging a disappointing season. Interestingly, the Celtics are in a similar situation as last year, as their star Jayson Tatum missed the first 62 games of the season, while several other key players such as Jrue Holiday, Al Horford, and Kristaps Porziņģis also left the team.
If health holds up, Boston’s starting five—Neemias Queta, Tatum, Sam Hauser, Jaylen Brown, and Derrick White—will have a major advantage. The key will be consistency and avoiding the “black holes” in their game that hurt them last year in their loss to the Knicks in the conference semifinals.
White will need to improve his shooting, as his field-goal percentage has been under 50% this season. He is also a candidate for Defensive Player of the Year, which shows his quality.
The 76ers are already satisfied just by reaching the playoffs. A major blow is the absence of Joel Embiid, who underwent appendix surgery last week. He has played only 38 games this season due to multiple injuries.
Tyrese Maxey, Paul George, and rookie VJ Edgecombe are the main pillars of the team. Maxey is expected to play more than 80% of the minutes, which is a huge burden, but he has proven he can lead Philadelphia in Embiid’s absence.
Overall, Boston seems likely to sweep or win in five games. They are clearly superior in every aspect of the game, especially with Embiid out. Anything beyond five or six games would be a major surprise.
New York – Atlanta
The third-seeded Knicks host the Hawks. This is a season in which New York won the NBA Cup, proving they can compete at the highest level. Last season they reached the conference finals, and expectations in New York are that they could finally win their first NBA title since 1973.
The starting lineup—Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges, and Josh Hart—will be strongly supported by the bench: Miles McBride, Landry Shamet, and Mitchell Robinson. Towns could dominate both inside and outside the paint, while Brunson remains the primary offensive engine.
The bench is a major strength for New York, especially when the starters struggle.
On the other side, the Hawks have their own weapons. Their group—CJ McCollum, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dyson Daniels, Jalen Johnson, and Onyeka Okongwu—is known for athleticism, pace, offensive efficiency, and solid defense.
A key wildcard from the bench is Jonathan Kuminga, who arrived from the Warriors this season. The young players’ energy, belief, and desire to prove themselves could give Atlanta at least some chance.
Realistically, this series could go five or six games.
Cleveland – Toronto
The fourth-seeded Cavaliers face fifth-seeded Toronto in what is expected to be the most balanced matchup of the first round.
The Raptors actually won the season series 3–0. Cleveland would likely be better positioned if they had earlier integration of James Harden, one of the greatest players of his generation who still has no NBA championship. With him, Cleveland looks like a title contender.
Alongside him are Donovan Mitchell and the “Twin Towers” duo of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. This forms the core of a strong Cavaliers team. If Harden is fully engaged, he could be an elite playmaker who unlocks the rest of the roster.
Cleveland must also improve defensively, which was a weakness this season. Mobley, in particular, needs to elevate his play.
Toronto is happy to have avoided the play-in and enter directly into the playoffs. However, they will need to work hard to get past Cleveland.
Their core—Brandon Ingram, Scottie Barnes, and RJ Barrett—must deliver at their highest level and elevate the rest of the roster. The Raptors are a well-balanced team, play fast, and are among the better defensive units in the league.
Center Jakob Poeltl will need to step up, as he has not yet reached full form after missing 39 games due to injury.
The most likely outcome is a five- or six-game series.
