Any average observer of American politics knows very well that presidents are limited to two terms and cannot remain in the White House indefinitely. This term limit is one of the foundations of American democracy, which is based on the system of checks and balances. This principle ensures that no branch of government—executive, legislative, or judicial—becomes too powerful. The American system differs from that of many European Union countries, where the most powerful political figure, the prime minister, can serve an unlimited number of terms.
At first glance, one might think that Donald Trump will adhere to the U.S. Constitution and will not attempt to secure a third presidential term through legal or illegal means. However, this scenario should not be ruled out. Trump is an unconventional politician who breaks many previously established norms. In August 2020, at a campaign rally, he said: “We’ll get another four years. And then after that, we’ll go for another four years.” In May 2024, he hinted that he might seek a third term, mentioning that Franklin Roosevelt won four terms. In November, he told Republican members of the House of Representatives: “I don’t think I’ll run again unless you say, ‘He’s so good that we have to come up with a solution.’” In January of this year, he stated: “It will be the greatest honor of my life to serve not once, but twice—or three or four times,” before quickly adding, “No, it will be an honor to serve twice.”
Many analysts believe that Trump could attempt to stay in power beyond January 2029—if, of course, he has the desire to do so. By then, he will be 82 years old. He might try to remain in the White House due to his significant legal troubles. By all accounts, a peaceful retirement at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida seems unlikely. Some of his legal cases have been put on hold because he has become president again, but once he is no longer in office, they could be reopened—especially if a Democratic president comes to power. These are not just minor infractions but serious offenses.
Trump faces two federal indictments filed by special counsel Jack Smith, who was appointed by the U.S. Department of Justice. The first indictment accuses him of conspiring to overturn the results of the 2020 election, while the second concerns the illegal retention of classified documents. Additionally, it is uncertain what Trump will do during his current term. It is possible that he will create further legal problems for himself. Everyone understands that the best way to defend oneself is from a position of executive power.
The Significance of the 22nd Amendment
The 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, adopted in 1951, prevents any individual from being elected president three times. The amendment is quite clear: “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of President more than once.”
The message is clear. Whoever has won the presidency twice cannot do so a third time, regardless of whether the terms are consecutive or not. Therefore, Trump cannot be elected president for a third time.
The second part of the quoted sentence in the 22nd Amendment applies to individuals who have been promoted to the presidency from the vice presidency due to the president’s death, removal from office, or resignation. If such a person has served as president for up to two years, they may run for the presidency twice. However, if they have served as president for more than two years, they may only run for election once. In total, no individual can serve as president for more than ten years.
Two different examples illustrate this rule: Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson. Harry Truman served as president for nearly four years after Franklin Roosevelt’s death, from April 1945 to January 1949, and then for another four years as an elected president. According to the 22nd Amendment, he would not have been eligible to run for another term. Truman adhered to this restriction, even though the 22nd Amendment was adopted in 1951 and did not apply to him. On the other hand, Lyndon Johnson became president after John Kennedy’s assassination in 1963, serving as interim president for one year. He was therefore eligible to run for the presidency twice, in 1964 and 1968. However, he chose not to run in 1968 due to his low approval ratings, which were largely a consequence of the Vietnam War.
The Vice-Presidential Card
Although Trump cannot run for president a third time, he might become president through the vice presidency. After all, the 22nd Amendment states that a person cannot be elected president three times, but it does not explicitly prohibit other ways of assuming the office. However, there are legal complications. Under the 22nd Amendment, he could become president if he served as vice president and his superior president resigned. If JD Vance or another Trump ally were to run in the 2028 election, they could appoint Trump as vice president, and after two years in office, in January 2031, hand over the presidency to Trump. Under the 22nd Amendment, Trump could serve as president for two years, until January 2033, and that would be the end of it. If JD Vance or another Trump loyalist won the 2032 election and attempted to transfer the presidency to Trump in 2033 or 2035, that would not be valid under the 22nd Amendment. A similar president-vice president swap has been seen in Russia when Dmitry Medvedev held the presidency for Vladimir Putin because three consecutive terms were not allowed.
The Problem of the 12th Amendment
However, the 12th Amendment to the Constitution from 1804 contradicts the previously mentioned scenario. The amendment states: “No person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.” Therefore, since Trump is constitutionally ineligible to be president, he could not serve as vice president either. Interestingly, the U.S. Constitution does not impose a term limit on the vice presidency.
It is clear that there are ambiguities between the 22nd and 12th Amendments, which could be decided by the U.S. Supreme Court. Given that Trump has appointed conservative justices to the court and may appoint more before the end of his second term, it would not be surprising if they ruled in his favor. The Supreme Court already ruled in his favor in 2024 when it allowed Trump to run for office despite being accused of insurrection (the January 6, 2021, Capitol attack), even though the 14th Amendment explicitly states that anyone charged with insurrection cannot hold federal office.
The Line of Succession Card
Besides the vice presidency, Trump could ascend to the presidency through the line of succession defined by the Presidential Succession Act of 1947. Under the law, if both the president and vice president resign simultaneously, the presidency is assumed by the next person in the line of succession. The first person in line is the Speaker of the House of Representatives, followed by the President pro tempore of the Senate, the Secretary of State, and so on. It is possible that after leaving office in 2029, Trump could become Speaker of the House and later pressure the president and vice president to resign at some point so that he could become the leader once again. However, the problem of the 22nd Amendment remains.
Repealing the 22nd Amendment
One legal (though highly unlikely) way for Trump to secure a third term in the White House would be to repeal the 22nd Amendment. It would not be the first time a constitutional amendment has been revoked. However, this has only happened once in U.S. history—when the 21st Amendment was passed in 1933 to repeal the 18th Amendment, which had prohibited the production, distribution, and sale of alcohol.
Repealing an amendment is not easy. The process is deliberately designed to protect democracy and is highly complicated. A 28th Amendment would have to be passed to abolish the 22nd Amendment. There are two ways to propose such an amendment: 1) By Congress – Two-thirds of both the House and the Senate must approve the proposed amendment; 2) By the States – Two-thirds of the state legislatures (34 out of 50 states) must call for a constitutional convention to propose an amendment. Regardless of which method is used, the final step requires three-quarters of the states (38 out of 50) to ratify the proposed amendment.
Due to the complexity of the process, no new amendment has been passed since 1992. This scenario is highly unlikely because Republicans do not have a two-thirds majority in either house of Congress nor control over three-quarters of the state legislatures. Currently, Republicans have legislative control in 28 out of 50 states, which is far fewer than the 38 needed.
Undemocratic Methods
The previously described methods are legal, albeit controversial, ways for Trump to secure a third term in the White House. However, he could also attempt to do so through undemocratic means, of which there are plenty. The simplest option would be for him to run in the 2028 Republican primaries as usual. If the Republican Party fully backed him, the question is what the Supreme Court justices would decide. Would they strictly follow the law, or would they give in to the will of the people?
It is possible that Trump’s lawyers would try to challenge the validity of the 22nd or 12th Amendment, arguing that the two-term limit only applies to consecutive terms—an argument that Steve Bannon has already promoted, despite being completely false. However, his legal team might attempt to find another loophole, perhaps by exploiting a procedural error or framing it as the right of the people to elect whoever they want. There are many ways to manipulate a country’s legal framework. Dictators around the world, from Latin America to Asia, have used similar tactics.
Trump could also attempt to stay in the White House beyond January 2029 by declaring a state of emergency due to war, a natural disaster, or a pandemic. A state of emergency would allow him to postpone the elections. It is not out of the question that Trump and his allies could provoke a conflict (perhaps a cyber war) to create a legal basis for delaying the election. Taking everything into account, there is no doubt that even if Trump peacefully leaves office in 2029, he will try to maintain his influence through his allies in the MAGA movement and by establishing a Trump political dynasty. Sooner or later, a member of the Trump family will likely attempt to return to the White House.
Author: Matija Šerić
Featured image: Pixabay
