By Matija Šerić
Never before has a nuclear-armed state used nuclear weapons against another nuclear-armed state. Even Pakistan and India refrained from using such weapons during their border clashes over Kashmir in recent decades. No one has deployed nuclear weapons because they know the adversary would retaliate in kind. If Israel were to drop a nuclear bomb on Iran, it’s possible that Pakistan or an Iranian ally like Russia would respond in the same way. The same goes for Iran—Israel or the U.S. would retaliate. Therefore, the use of nuclear weapons in a conflict between Israel and Iran can realistically only happen in the context of Jewish and Islamic eschatology, or the End Times.
Religious Zionism
In the context of Jewish eschatology—which includes concepts of the end of days, the coming of the Messiah, and a final battle between good and evil (Gog and Magog)—there is rarely mention of specific weapons as tools of divine justice. However, certain religious circles in Israel, particularly nationalist-religious messianic movements, may interpret modern political events through a prophetic and apocalyptic lens. These are groups of religious Zionists who believe the modern State of Israel is a divine instrument for fulfilling biblical prophecies and ushering in the Messiah.
Notably, followers of Rabbi Abraham Isaac Kook (1865–1935) and his son Rabbi Zvi Yehuda Kook (1891–1982) form the ideological foundation of the religious Zionist movement Gush Emunim (“Bloc of the Faithful”), which emerged after the Six-Day War in 1967. These religious Zionists interpret Israeli military victories over Arabs and the return of Jews to biblical lands—especially Judea and Samaria (the West Bank)—as signs of the fulfillment of divine plans.
Although Gush Emunim officially disbanded in 2010, its influence persists through religious-nationalist schools such as Mercaz HaRav and its political affiliates like Otzma Yehudit (“Jewish Power”) and the Religious Zionism party. Some of their members advocate for full Israeli sovereignty over all biblical Israel and view the coming of the Messiah as a political reality. Religious Zionists also have some influence within the ruling Likud party.
Jewish radicals often interpret threats like Iran through the lens of a biblical struggle with the enemies of Israel, just before the ultimate rebuilding of the Third Jewish Temple and the arrival of the Messiah. Although such eschatological expectations are not official state policy, they can become dominant in times of severe crisis, like the current one.
Nuclear Weapons in Jewish Eschatology
While the Israeli government is pragmatic, in a moment of existential threat, it could resort to nuclear weapons. A nuclear strike on Iran could be seen as a “defensive war” against forces of evil. Jewish radicals portray Iran as the main enemy of the Jewish people and God’s plan, particularly due to Iranian threats to destroy Israel and its support for groups like Hezbollah and Hamas.
Judaism does not glorify the apocalypse but does believe in the eventual restoration of Israel, the coming of the Messiah, and the establishment of a righteous kingdom on Earth. When this future is perceived to be in danger, extremist rabbis may justify even the most drastic measures—including the use of nuclear weapons—as a necessary evil to achieve a higher divine purpose.
Some analysts have suggested that Israel, under extreme existential threats, might consider using nuclear weapons against Iran. These include Avner Cohen, Michael O’Hanlon, Mark Fitzpatrick, and Efraim Inbar.
Islamic Eschatology Context
Islamic (specifically Shiite) eschatology can also provide a framework for the use of nuclear weapons. According to Shiite belief, the 12th and final Imam—Mahdi, who disappeared in the 9th century but is considered alive—will return during a time of chaos, war, injustice, and moral collapse to establish divine justice. His return signals divine renewal, as Mahdi will defeat oppressors and establish an ideal Islamic society.
The return of Mahdi is often associated with a massive global conflict, leading some to believe that catastrophic events may herald or hasten his arrival. Some radical elements within the Iranian regime believe that triggering a global conflict could accelerate Mahdi’s return. In this context, nuclear weapons would not just be military tools, but spiritual instruments for transforming the world in accordance with eschatological expectations.
These beliefs are most commonly associated with radical members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and some theocratic factions close to the ideology of former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who is known for his apocalyptic rhetoric and belief that his political mission was tied to preparing the world for Mahdi’s return.
In 2021, despite Supreme Leader Khamenei’s fatwa against the use of nuclear weapons, Iran’s intelligence minister, Mahmoud Alavi, stated that the country might change its stance if “pushed in that direction,” like a “cat cornered.” In February this year, during a meeting between Khamenei and IRGC commanders, pressure was applied to lift the ban on nuclear weapons. In March, Khamenei’s adviser Ali Larijani said Iran would have no choice but to develop nuclear weapons if attacked by the U.S. or its allies.
Nuclear Weapons in Islamic Eschatology
Within radical Shiite eschatology, nuclear weapons are not merely seen as tools for physical destruction, but as divine instruments of purification and preparation for Mahdi’s return. According to Islamic eschatology, when Mahdi returns, the world will be in a state of deep decadence. His arrival will mark the beginning of the end times and the renewal of God’s order.
Shiite tradition says Mahdi will join forces with Jesus (Isa), who will also return, to defeat the false Messiah (Dajjal)—the embodiment of evil and deception. According to radical beliefs, a great war and global chaos will speed up this final battle between good and evil. Iran could therefore view its use of such weapons as a strike against the Antichrist—Israel.
After Mahdi and Jesus achieve victory, a new era of true justice, peace, and universal Islam will be established, ruled by divine law (sharia). All tyrants and oppressors will be destroyed. Mahdi will reportedly rule for seven to nine years, during which humanity will undergo spiritual and moral purification before final judgment and the end of the world.
Some prominent Middle East experts warn that if Iran develops or acquires nuclear weapons, it may seriously consider using them against Israel under extreme circumstances. Among the most notable of these analysts are David Albright, Michael Eisenstadt, and Matthew Kroenig.
The Possibility of Armageddon
Although Israel’s nuclear arsenal has long served as a powerful deterrent, the escalation of the conflict with Iran raises the risk of actual use of nuclear weapons. On the other hand, Iran’s nuclear program is getting closer to military capability, and a combination of strategic threat perception and eschatological beliefs could push Iran to seriously consider using such weapons if seriously threatened by Israel.
Considering the principle of mutually assured destruction, both states are aware that a nuclear strike would have catastrophic consequences for all. Yet, if things spiral out of control and apocalyptic beliefs become dominant among political leaders, the world could find itself on the brink of a nuclear nightmare.
