By Matija Šerić
After 28 rounds of the English Premier League, Arsenal is still the league leader with 61 points. At the time of writing, they are five points ahead of second-placed Manchester City, who have one game in hand. Even if City wins that postponed match, the Gunners would still top the table with a two-point advantage. That may not seem like much mathematically, but in the Premier League, every point counts. The question on everyone’s mind is: can Mikel Arteta’s team hold on and finally win the most prestigious title in England after a long 22-year wait? Arsenal fans believe they can, skeptics say they won’t, and based on available facts, we can make objective predictions.
Unconvincing Form
In their last five matches, Arsenal has recorded three wins (against Leeds, Sunderland, and Tottenham) and two worrying draws (against Brentford and Wolverhampton). Some might argue that the Gunners could have easily lost to the season’s surprise package Brentford, and the draw with Wolves was hardly convincing. Clearly, the team has entered a kind of results and performance crisis.
Brentford – Yellow Alert
It’s clear that Arsenal struggles against teams that prepare analytically for an aggressive, pressing defense throughout the match. The Gunners couldn’t adapt to Brentford’s specific style – their opponents were more combative, compact, and efficient when increasing intensity – which prevented Arsenal from controlling the game. Although Arsenal dominated possession, Eze, Trossard, and Zubimendi had little space or time to organize midfield play optimally. Rice performed at his highest level, but his teammates in midfield and on the wings (except Madueke) weren’t able to provide enough support due to pressure from the opposition.
Even though Madueke scored in the 61st minute, Keane Lewis-Potter equalized ten minutes later for a final 1-1 scoreline. Towards the end, Brentford was very close to winning, and the Gunners looked shaky, as if facing Manchester United. Some may argue that this is the Premier League – anyone can beat anyone – and Keith Andrews’ side is overperforming.
Wolverhampton – Red Alert
This argument might work for Brentford, but not for last-placed Wolverhampton, who have long been relegation-bound. After 29 rounds, they have 13 points and only two wins. Yet the Gunners slipped at Molineux Stadium despite leading 0-2 by the 61st minute. Wolves scored twice to draw 2-2 after Arsenal lost control of the tempo, ceded possession, and failed to focus on defending their lead. In other words, the players were neither mentally nor tactically focused, assuming the game was already won. In the 94th minute, Tom Edozie scored a goal that could cost Arsenal the title. Arsenal’s defense has been shaky recently, and it was supposed to be the team’s backbone.
Injuries – A Major Threat
Injuries have contributed to the loss of four points. Ødegaard is expected to return against Chelsea on Sunday, Kai Havertz and Ben White against Brighton on March 4, and young talent Max Dowman soon. Veteran Mikel Merino, however, will miss the rest of the season due to a foot fracture and subsequent surgery. These are significant setbacks, especially Merino’s absence, as he provides stability in midfield, tactical discipline, physical presence in duels, calm in building attacks, and crucial experience in key moments. Rice and Zubimendi will need to improve their partnership in central midfield.
Masters of Holding Leads
Arsenal remains the best team in the Premier League at maintaining leads. In 22 matches where they scored first, they have won 18. The bigger issue is their lack of finishing, which is becoming more pronounced. The club’s top scorer is Viktor Gyökeres with only 10 goals – far below the expected minimum of around 20 for a title-contending team.
Lack of Goals
It’s unrealistic to expect a title-winning team to dominate every week, and narrow victories often form the foundation of a championship campaign in the world’s toughest league. Still, there’s a sense that Arsenal leaves too many matches open until the end. Their advantage is a deep squad across nearly all positions except center-forward. Mosquera, Lewis-Skelly, and Gabriel Jesus would be starters in most top European clubs. However, defensive insecurity has crept in, perhaps a consequence of fear of winning.
10 Crucial Matches
In their next ten games, the Gunners will play six at Emirates and four away. Beating Chelsea would strengthen their title credentials by 5–10%. Next comes tough away trips to Brighton, home games against Everton and Bournemouth, followed by a derby at Manchester City’s Etihad Stadium. Winning all previous matches would reduce the pressure on City, though even a draw away, ideally from a set-piece, would be perfect. Afterward, Arsenal faces Newcastle and Fulham at home, West Ham away, Burnley at home, and finishes the season against Crystal Palace away. The schedule isn’t overly difficult, and they likely need seven or eight wins to secure the title.
Arsenal holds pole position, but it’s far from over. Rice, Gabriel, and Saka – the team’s standout trio across three lines – are expected to lead the Gunners to the title. Whether they succeed will be revealed in the next two to three months.
