By Matija Šerić
“Climate change represents an urgent global challenge. It requires collective action from humanity and a comprehensive response. In India, faith and nature have been deeply connected since ancient times.” This was once stated by Narendra Modi. The legendary and current Indian Prime Minister has repeatedly warned the world about the great dangers posed by climate change. Modi’s warnings are entirely justified, as India is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world. However, it is by no means the only one.
Climate change is a threat to all nations, though the Indian subcontinent is particularly exposed. The situation across all Indian states is alarming, and the Republic of India deserves special attention as the most populous country in the world, with 1.4 billion people and a growing economy.
Climate 2025 Breaks Negative Records
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) released statistics earlier this month for the past year, and the results are far from encouraging. India experienced its eighth warmest year in history in 2025, with a national average temperature 0.28 °C above the 1991–2020 baseline. Indians experienced the hottest winter (and February) in 124 years of temperature measurements. Heatwaves began as early as February in Goa and Maharashtra, a phenomenon never seen before.
Temperatures in India have risen by 0.68 °C between 1901 and 2025. Although this is about half the global average (due to irrigation, air pollution, and variable monsoon winds), the consequences are apocalyptic. Maximum temperatures increased by 0.89 °C and minimum temperatures by 0.47 °C. The rise in minimum temperatures—not just daytime heat—was a key factor driving extreme weather throughout the year. Why? Because hot nights extend heatwaves and create instability year-round, even outside the summer months.
Situation in India is alarming
Pre-Monsoon Rainfalls
The pre-monsoon season (March–May) was 0.29 °C warmer than usual. In May, India recorded its highest rainfall ever since 1901, at 126.7 mm, while total pre-monsoon rainfall was the third highest in history. Excessive rainfall caused sudden floods and deadly landslides, significantly increasing the number of extreme weather days even before the monsoon season officially began.
Monsoon Disasters
During the summer monsoon (June–September), average temperatures remained above normal by +0.09 °C. All parts of the country were affected. Particularly heavy rains in August and September caused flash floods that devastated the states of Punjab, Jammu and Kashmir, and Himachal Pradesh. Punjab experienced its worst floods since 1988, while Himachal Pradesh recorded heavy to extremely heavy rain on 98 of 122 monsoon days.
Cold Waves in the Post-Monsoon Period
The post-monsoon season (October–December) was slightly cooler than average, at -0.10 °C below the mean, but extraordinary weather continued. Cold waves hit 13 states across all regions of India. The October Cyclone Montha and episodes of locally intense rainfall were deadly, killing at least 300 people.
Floods – the Number One National Threat
Historically, lightning was the deadliest weather phenomenon in India, but last year, massive rainfall overtook it, making floods the number one climate threat. In 2025, extreme weather events killed at least 2,760 Indians. Floods and landslides caused 1,372 deaths, while lightning accounted for 1,317. Heavy rains trigger landslides and floods that destroy everything in their path, including infrastructure, flora, fauna, and human lives.
India – a Collateral Climate Victim of Global Development
Indian authorities can be criticized for many things, but it must be recognized that India did not create these climate problems (or at least is not the main contributor); rather, they are largely a result of pollution generated by other countries (China, Russia, the USA, Japan, South Korea, and the EU). Statistics clearly show this. Although India has about 17% of the world’s population, it emits only 7% of global greenhouse gases. Indians emit around 3 gigatons (Gt) of greenhouse gases annually, averaging about 2.5 tons per person—well below the global average of four to five tons per person per year.
Nevertheless, despite its below-average contribution to climate change, India has been in a climate crisis since the 1970s. The country is particularly exposed due to its geography, diverse terrain and climate, and overpopulation. Unsustainable development in India has also worsened the situation. High levels of air and water pollution have led to increased infant mortality, poor sanitation, and reduced life expectancy.
Water and Drought Crises
Rising temperatures on the Tibetan Plateau are causing accelerated melting of Himalayan glaciers, threatening the flow of the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Yamuna, and other major rivers. Massive landslides and floods are expected to become more frequent in states like Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, and Sikkim. The intensity and frequency of heatwaves are also increasing. Flooding along rivers and the Indian Ocean may worsen, creating major water crises. Droughts are also expected to become more frequent and severe in the current century.
Average people are ones who suffer the most
A Plague for the Economy and Society
The economic impact on India is enormous. Climate change poses a serious threat to food security, affecting agriculture, fisheries, and livestock. Estimates indicate that by the end of the 21st century, India’s GDP could decline by 6.4% to over 10%, and around 50 million people could fall into poverty due to the climate crisis. Rising sea levels and coastal floods (especially in the Ganges delta and coastal cities like Kolkata and Mumbai), inland floods, cyclones, landslides, and droughts could force between 20 and 40 million Indians into climate displacement by mid-century. Some of these people could move to urban areas in India, while others could spread across the world.
Climate change disproportionately affects lower castes and indigenous Adivasi communities. Rising sea levels cause floods and coastal erosion, making coastal residents especially vulnerable to forced relocation, while the urban poor suffer most from heat-related illnesses.
Potential Solutions
“When we talk only about climate change, there is a perception of wanting to preserve our comfortable lifestyle. But when we speak of climate justice, we demonstrate our sensitivity and determination to secure the future of the poor from the dangers of natural disasters,” stated Prime Minister Modi. Although his government has taken significant action against climate change—investing in renewable energy, promoting electrification of transport, and launching initiatives for forest and water conservation—much more can be done. In addition to these measures, India must adapt its infrastructure and agriculture to very adverse weather conditions. Developing early warning systems for disasters can reduce risks for the most vulnerable communities.
The international community can assist India by supporting a transition to a sustainable (green) economy and reducing reliance on coal, oil, and gas in industry. Foreign aid can provide financial and technical support for India’s green transition through technology transfer and joint projects. International climate funds and collaboration in climate risk research can also help India better adapt to climate change.
