By Matija Šerić
For a long time, the People’s Republic of China was a country of record demographic growth. Even in the early 2000s, the country gained several tens of millions of new residents every year. This demographic momentum strongly fueled the nation’s extraordinary economic growth since the late 1970s. It seemed as if China would forever remain the most populous country in the world.
The One-Child Policy Destroyed China’s Demography
However, the trends of rapid population growth slowed and eventually came to a halt. The primary responsibility lies with China itself. The one-child policy, introduced in 1979 and implemented for over thirty years, drastically reduced the number of newborns. Later, official Beijing gradually relaxed the restrictions. In 2015, two children per family were allowed; in 2021, three children; and in July of the same year, all limits were removed. However, the changes came too late, and the damage was severe. Once again, misfortune did not come alone. Declining fertility was accompanied by other problems: high housing, education, and public service costs, too many men and too few women, an excess of retirees, and an aging workforce. China’s population declined for the first time in 2022 and is expected to continue falling in the following years. In April 2023, India surpassed China to become the world’s most populous nation.
The consequence of this persistent but serious demographic decline is a shaken China, now facing an enormous demographic challenge whose effects are difficult to imagine and will shape its future in the coming decades.
China’s population is decreasing swiftly
By 2100, China Could Lose Half Its Population
China’s population, currently around 1.40 billion people, could decrease in the next ten years by more than the population of Poland (around 40 million), and that is just the beginning. United Nations estimates indicate that by 2050, China could lose around 140 million people (roughly the population of Russia), and by the end of the 21st century, the number of Chinese could drop to about 760 million. Already next year, China’s population could decrease by 3.2 million—roughly the population of Qatar. By the end of 2030, the population is expected to decline by 17.9 million compared to 2025, almost equal to the population of the Netherlands.
Major Challenges on the Horizon
Very unfavorable demographic trends foreshadow deep social and economic changes that will shape the future of the Land of the Dragon. Falling birth rates mean a shrinking and aging population. This leads to a situation in which a smaller number of working-age people supports an increasing number of retirees, slowing economic growth, burdening pension and healthcare systems, hindering long-term innovation, and threatening financial stability. China’s demographic decline is happening exceptionally fast, representing a serious challenge for the future. Experts emphasize the need for stronger political support for young people and more decisive measures to combat discrimination against women in the workplace to create a society that encourages marriage and family formation.
Marriage Meltdown: China’s Demographic Crisis
Declining Popularity of Marriage
According to the latest Chinese Statistical Yearbook by the National Bureau of Statistics, around 6.1 million couples registered marriages last year. The vast majority, 6.04 million, were residents of mainland China. Meanwhile, 61,900 couples were composed of foreign nationals, overseas Chinese, or residents of the special administrative regions of Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan.
Data show that marriage registrations have fluctuated in recent years. After a long-term decline since 2013, 2023 saw a slight recovery. In the first three quarters of 2025, there were approximately 5.15 million registered marriages, compared to 4.75 million in the same period last year—a modest but encouraging increase. Current trends are prompting experts and the broader public to call on the Chinese government to take concrete measures to make the path to marriage and parenthood easier for young people, thereby creating a society where families have a real chance to grow.
Experts Are Not Optimistic
“From a demographic perspective, the current population in China of marriageable age—mainly those born after 1990 and 2000—is shrinking. Young people’s attitudes toward marriage differ from previous generations. They often delay marriage or decide not to marry at all,” noted Jiang Quanbao, professor at the University of Economics and Business in Beijing.
Jiang added that decisions about marriage are influenced by social pressures and changing norms. “Young people face financial challenges—housing costs, dowries, weddings, and raising children. Additionally, women are increasingly investing in education and career success,” he said, adding that society today is more open and tolerant toward diverse views on marriage.
Zhang Xianling, associate professor at the School of Sociology and Psychology at the Central University of Finance and Economics in Beijing, explained that marriage has traditionally been seen as key to personal development and preserving family heritage. However, due to rapid economic and social changes, more young people are choosing to delay marriage or not marry at all.
What China’s Shrinking Population Means For The Global Economy
Authorities Try to Improve the Situation
To encourage more marriages and higher birth rates, in recent years an increasing number of Chinese provinces and cities have introduced childcare subsidies and financial incentives for families. Beijing is moving toward a national support program for parents, aiming to ease child-rearing costs and encourage childbirth across the country. There are also measures to simplify marriage registration, making marriage more accessible to young people.
In May, young people of marriageable age were allowed to register their marriages at their workplace or residence, instead of their hometown, under the hukou system, also known as the household registration system. In July, financial support for families was introduced, amounting to 3,600 yuan (around 511 USD) per year for each child under three, aimed at easing child-rearing costs and encouraging parenthood. One recent change was the removal of tax exemptions on some contraceptives, presented in the media as part of China’s broader strategy to encourage childbirth and support demographic growth. At the same time, concerns about the spread of sexually transmitted diseases have been raised.
Recently adopted recommendations for drafting China’s 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) also emphasize the importance of promoting positive attitudes toward marriage and childbirth through improved incentive policies and support measures to make marriage more attractive to young people. Starting in 2026, China will implement full coverage of all medical expenses related to childbirth, including prenatal check-ups, the government announced on December 13. The goal is “to improve coverage of prenatal check-up costs and ensure that parents pay nothing out of pocket during childbirth.”
Beijing Will Need a More Assertive Demographic Policy
Unfortunately, all these measures will not be enough. Much more will need to be done. Encouraging young people to marry and have children requires a systematic approach. A combination of financial support, improved public services (especially high-quality kindergartens and childcare programs), and raising awareness of the value of marriage is necessary. Additionally, the government will need to lower mortgage rates for family housing, reduce child-rearing costs, and alleviate young people’s career concerns—through the creation of new jobs. Through such policies, young people can be encouraged to marry and have children, while also fostering a society that supports family as the foundation of the community.
