By Matija Šerić
Following Hamas’s incursion into southern Israel, the Israeli military launched a campaign in the Gaza Strip starting on October 27, 2023, which has continued to the present day. The consequences for the Palestinian population of Gaza have been devastating. By June 2025, the war had claimed the lives of over 55,000 Palestinians (more than half of whom were women and children), with over 125,000 injured. Despite the heavy losses and thorough destruction of some areas of Gaza, Hamas has not been eliminated and remains a persistent threat to Israel. Hamas continues to survive with the support of Tehran, which has positioned itself as the group’s main patron.
Escalation in 2024
The brutal war in Gaza further deteriorated the already strained relationship between Tehran and Tel Aviv. On April 1, 2024, Israel conducted an airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, killing 16 people, including eight officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Among the dead was Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, commander of the Quds Force. In retaliation, on April 13, Iran launched an attack on Israel with 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles, and 120 ballistic missiles. Most of these were intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome, with only minor damage caused at two Israeli airports. Six days later, Israel responded with its own airstrikes, which caused little significant damage aside from the destruction of one surface-to-air missile battery and a radar installation.
On July 31, Mossad agents in Tehran assassinated Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh while he was in the Iranian capital to attend the inauguration of new Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian. At the time, Haniyeh was reportedly engaged in negotiations with Israeli diplomats regarding a permanent ceasefire in Gaza. The assassination significantly damaged Iran’s reputation as a hospitable host country. In retaliation, on October 1, 2024, Iran launched about 180 ballistic missiles at Israel. The attack caused only minor damage to Israeli airbases and resulted in the deaths of two civilians.
The Collapse of Assad’s Syria
In December 2024, Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria collapsed, largely due to Israeli logistical support for various Islamist rebel factions. This shift changed the regional balance in Israel’s favor and to Iran’s detriment. Although the new Islamist government in Damascus, led by the terrorist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), is by no means friendly toward Israel, the Israelis benefit from Tehran’s loss of official control over Damascus—a key partner in the “Axis of Resistance.” The new Syrian authorities lack the capability to stabilize the country, and the Syrian Civil War continues, with the country remaining fragmented among various factions.
Israel carries out attacks on Tehran
June 2025 – Dangerous Escalation
On June 13, 2025, a new round of armed conflict between Israel and Iran began. Interestingly, Israel launched attacks on Iranian nuclear and military facilities without consulting the Americans, even as U.S. diplomats were engaged in negotiations with Iranian counterparts to freeze Iran’s nuclear program. This time, the situation may not de-escalate so easily. On the contrary, current events could have apocalyptic consequences.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei called the situation “the beginning of war,” labeled the Israeli attacks “a great crime,” and warned that the Zionist regime would suffer a “bitter fate.” Iran responded with drone and ballistic missile attacks on Tel Aviv and other cities, and the situation is changing by the minute. Whether this will remain a mutual exchange of advanced barrages or escalate into a regional war remains to be seen.
Iran strikes back at Israel with waves of missile attacks
Potential for Reconciliation
Given the current unfavorable circumstances, reconciliation between Israel and Iran is not a realistic possibility in the near future. What could potentially ease the hostility between the two nations? Iranian Islamists consider Israel an illegal and illegitimate state that has usurped Muslim land (with Jerusalem holding a special place in Islam) and displaced Palestinians from their homeland. Moderate Iranians believe that instead of Israel, there should be a non-confessional state where Muslims and Jews could live as equal citizens. Radical Iranian officials are much harsher. Former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad spoke of wiping Israel off the map, echoing the words of the late revolutionary leader Ayatollah Khomeini. However, this is not the only perspective within Iran’s political structure.
More liberal and reformist-leaning Iranians accept the reality of Israel and its right to exist—alongside a Palestinian state. To counter the trend of normalization between Arab states and Israel, Tehran might, at some point in the future, feel compelled to initiate its own dialogue with Israel. An eventual improvement in Iran’s relations with the West could also encourage a reassessment of its enmity with Israel, especially if accompanied by the resurgence of more moderate forces within the country. For this to happen, a prerequisite would be for new Iranian leadership to adopt a more moderate stance toward Israel.
Progress in resolving the Palestinian issue could also prompt Iran to reconsider its hostile position. Perhaps China, which in March 2023 brokered the normalization of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, could mediate some form of agreement between Israel and Iran. Russia’s role should not be overlooked either, as it maintains good relations with Israelis, Palestinians, and Iranians. However, due to the current escalation, it is clear that such trends toward reconciliation will not be seen anytime soon.
Conclusion
Since the Iranian Revolution of 1979, the past 46 years have been marked by a Cold War-like standoff between Iran and Israel, with little sign of positive developments toward reconciliation between these sworn enemies. Iran leads the Axis of Resistance—which includes Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen—and unconditionally supports the Palestinian cause, viewing Israel as an enemy that must be destroyed. The Islamic Republic of Iran maintains excellent relations with Russia, China, and the Global South and advocates for a reformed global order. On the other hand, the State of Israel is the main U.S. partner in the region and seeks to isolate Iran and its allies, which it considers an existential threat.
Recent events, including mutual missile and drone strikes, have significantly heightened tensions and increased the risk of a broader regional war. Despite historical animosity, a potential change in regional dynamics or the global geopolitical framework could lead to a reassessment of hostilities between Iran and Israel—but for now, it is difficult to foresee any concrete steps toward reconciliation between these “irreconcilables.”
