By Matija Šerić
Mid-February, during the All-Star break, is the perfect time to analyze the current NBA season so far. The first, very exciting part of the season is over, and ahead of us are the final two months of the regular season and the playoffs. Teams have played around 55 of 82 games, which is enough of a sample to draw conclusions and make some predictions about what might happen in the near future. The first part of the analysis focuses on the Western Conference, the second on the East.
Thunders Living Up to Expectations
As expected, the Oklahoma City Thunder are playing beautiful basketball this season. They lead the Western Conference with a 42-14 record. They continued exactly where they left off last June when they won their first NBA title. The season started like a dream, with 24 wins and just one loss. Many predicted they could surpass the 2015–16 Golden State Warriors (73-9) and set the record for most wins in a regular season.
However, around the turn of the year, they faltered slightly. Their aura of invincibility was shattered by the Spurs, who defeated them in all four regular-season matchups, plus one loss in the NBA Cup semifinals. It became clear that OKC struggles against a tall center like Victor Wembanyama, when opponents don’t easily lose possession, and when multiple players contribute offensively.
Oklahoma Still Has Its Best to Show
The Thunder’s biggest issue is injuries. Jalen Williams missed 30 games, Isaiah Hartenstein 16 consecutive games from December to January, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander the last five games. Over time, OKC should be fully healthy and at their peak for the playoffs. Williams is slowly regaining rhythm after a preseason wrist surgery; Hartenstein has returned from a calf strain; and SGA’s abdominal injury was never expected to keep him out long-term. Interestingly, it may have been beneficial for SGA to miss some time, as it allowed other players to step up and take responsibility. In the playoffs, Hartenstein, Chet Holmgren, and Alex Caruso should anchor the defense, while SGA, Williams, Luguentz Dort, and others should punish opponents from mid-range and beyond the arc—a championship roster.
Spurs – a Very Pleasant Surprise
With a 38-16 record, San Antonio has surprised many, though on Actualitica we had predicted the Spurs would be excellent this season. There’s no big secret—this roster is top-notch. Wembanyama is brilliant, averaging 24.4 points, 11.1 rebounds, and 2.8 assists. Besides being the main threat to OKC, he performs consistently every game. In the February 11 matchup against the Lakers, he scored 40 points with 12 rebounds in just 26 minutes. De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, and Devin Vassell provide huge contributions. The Spurs excel in rebounding, rim protection, fast breaks, and close-game victories. They should secure a top-four spot in the West and continue to delight fans with their basketball.
Nuggets – a Team of Continuity
Denver is the third team in the Western Conference with a 35-20 record. Despite star Nikola Jokić missing 16 games, it hasn’t hindered their winning ways thanks to an excellent supporting roster. Injuries to top players like Aaron Gordon and Cameron Johnson haven’t destroyed their winning mentality. Peyton Watson has particularly shone this season, averaging 14.9 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 2 assists. Jokić returned in dominant form and could be an MVP candidate. Johnson summarized the injury situation well: “You don’t want to peak too early and then go downhill. So if injuries happen, it’s better now than in April. Who knows what the future holds, but we hope to overcome this and ride the positive wave.” Even a weaker Nuggets team with Jokić could go far in the playoffs. Jamal Murray is playing at his peak.
Houston Promises Excitement
Kevin Durant’s arrival has proven an excellent move for the Rockets. In 50 games, he averages 25.8 points, 4.4 assists, and 5.3 rebounds. Houston sits fourth in the West at 33-20. Their main challenge is injuries. Fred VanVleet hasn’t played at all this season due to a preseason injury, and it seems he won’t return. Steve Adams also got injured at the end of January and will miss the rest of the season. These are big blows. Statistically, Houston ranks sixth in offense, fifth in defense, and sixth in net rating. They struggle with three-point shooting and rely heavily on mid-range scoring. However, with a healthy and focused Durant, they could surprise in the second half.
Lakers Lack Roster Depth
The Lakers hold fifth place in the West at 33-21. It’s a solid record, but no real improvement compared to last year. “This is a team for a championship. We’re not that. We can’t maintain energy and effort for 48 minutes, but they can. That’s why they won the title,” LeBron James said after the Oklahoma game. He’s right. LeBron and Luka Dončić bring a winning mentality, but their teammates are not performing at the necessary level. Austin Reaves played only 28 games due to injury, and center Deandre Ayton is underperforming. Defense is a weak spot, requiring excellent shooting nights to stay competitive. This is likely LeBron’s last season in LA, and a championship seems unlikely. They looked stronger last year. Still, with LBJ and Dončić together, surprises are possible.
Timberwolves Slightly Disappoint
Minnesota sits sixth in the West with a 34-22 record. The team has shown it can achieve great things, but inconsistency and a lack of bench depth remain problems. Anthony Edwards averages 29.3 points per game, Julius Randle 22.3 points and 7 rebounds, while Rudy Gobert dominates the paint with 11.1 rebounds. Improving team chemistry could help them reach their potential.
Phoenix Surprised Everyone
The Suns, at 32-23, hold seventh place in the West—beyond expectations. Despite stars Jalen Green and Devin Booker playing only 7 and 43 games respectively, teammates have stepped up admirably. Center Mark Williams averages 8.1 rebounds, and Collin Gillespie 13.3 points. Booker has returned strong, averaging 25.2 points and 6.3 assists. The Suns should make the playoffs and could shock some favorites.
Warriors Hit by Injuries
Golden State sits eighth in the West at 29-26. The main reason is injuries to Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler. Butler will miss the rest of the season, which is a huge blow. However, with Curry back, the Warriors still have a chance to improve. The effect of Jonathan Kuminga and Buddy Hield moving to Atlanta remains to be seen, but newcomer Kristaps Porziņģis should strengthen the Warriors’ inside game. Draymond Green, at 35, needs to apply his experience—critical for the team. “We’re in a position where we’re desperately trying to win, not only each game, but also to be healthy for the playoffs,” said coach Steve Kerr.
The rest of the Western teams will struggle to make a significant impact, with the Clippers and Mavericks being the biggest disappointments. However, with the play-in tournament, anything is possible. The West is extremely strong, and only the toughest survive.
