By Matija Šerić
Looking at the current trajectory of the NBA playoffs, Indiana has emerged as the biggest surprise. The Pacers swept the heavily favored Milwaukee Bucks 4-1 in the Eastern Conference quarterfinals—despite the presence of superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo—and then went on to dominate the powerful Cleveland Cavaliers and their leader Donovan Mitchell, also winning the series 4-1. At the time of writing, Indiana leads 2-0 in the Eastern Conference Finals after two away games at Madison Square Garden. It’s starting to look like the Pacers could genuinely win the NBA title.
A Shocking Turn of Events
If Indiana does go all the way, it would be a historic first. The Pacers are one of ten NBA teams—and the only one from the Central Division—that have never claimed an NBA championship. Should they finally raise the trophy, it would go down as one of the league’s biggest shocks. Although the blue-and-gold boast a strong lineup led by point guard Tyrese Haliburton, shooter Andrew Nembhard, forward-center Pascal Siakam, center Myles Turner, and small forward Aaron Nesmith (their starting five), few predicted they would make it this far into the postseason.
According to American betting odds (moneyline), Indiana entered the playoffs with odds of +2200. A $100 bet on them to win it all would yield a $2,200 payout. The last team to pull off a title run with such long odds—though still shorter than Indiana’s—was the 2011 Dallas Mavericks at +1800. If they reach the NBA Finals, the Pacers will become one of the most unexpected finalists ever, second only to the 2023 Miami Heat, who made it with odds of +12500.
The Year of Blue and Gold?
Perhaps this is Indiana’s year. To win the coveted championship rings, they first need to close out the series against New York, after which they’ll face the winner of the Western Conference Finals between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Thunder currently lead 2-1 and are strong favorites to advance. Defeating them would be a major challenge, but Indiana has looked outstanding thus far.
During the regular season, the Pacers weren’t overly dominant. They finished fourth in the Eastern Conference with a 50-32 record—their first 50-win season since 2013-14. They boasted one of the league’s most potent offenses, averaging 116 points per game.
Crucial to their success was the phenomenal Tyrese Haliburton, who led the league in assists for most of the season (9.2 per game) and emerged as the team’s undisputed leader. He also averaged 18.6 points and 33.6 minutes per game. Major contributions also came from Pascal Siakam, Myles Turner, promising youngster Ben Mathurin, and Aaron Nesmith, giving Indiana a deep and balanced roster. Their style of play—rapid transitions, high assist numbers, and efficient shooting (48.8%)—has arguably made them the most exciting team to watch in the league. While their defense wasn’t elite and performances sometimes fluctuated, their offensive creativity and explosiveness more than compensated.
Mastermind Rick Carlisle
Although signs pointed to a promising run, many still underestimated the Pacers. In short, experts believed they were good—but not good enough to realize their full potential. That proved to be a flawed assumption. Especially with veteran coach Rick Carlisle at the helm, a man who led Dallas to an unexpected title in 2011. While often overlooked by the media, Carlisle is widely respected in basketball circles as one of the NBA’s most tactical and adaptable minds, known for getting the best out of his players. His strategic brilliance is especially evident in tight games and playoff scenarios, where his composure and experience make the difference.
Rising to the Occasion
Carlisle, Haliburton, and the rest of the team have built a resilience and fearlessness that allows them to perform at their best when the pressure is highest. In several playoff games, Indiana looked down and out—only to storm back. That was on full display against the Knicks. In Game 1, they trailed by 16 at one point and by nine with just 51 seconds remaining. Yet Indiana pulled off a miraculous comeback, thanks to a heroic performance from Nesmith, who drained eight three-pointers, and a clutch buzzer-beater by Haliburton that forced overtime. That moment may have broken the Knicks’ spirit. Naturally, the Pacers won the extra period. Haliburton scored 31 points, Nesmith added 30. A visibly shaken Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns—despite scoring 43 and 36 respectively—couldn’t stop them.
Numbers Don’t Lie
The same trend was seen against the Bucks and Cavs, where Indiana routinely came back from what seemed like hopeless deficits. Here’s a staggering stat: since the 1996-97 season, teams trailing by 7+ points in the final 50 seconds of the fourth quarter or overtime are 4-1,702. Of those four wins, three belong to this year’s Indiana Pacers. This speaks volumes about their mental toughness, character, and belief—traits essential for a championship run.
Balanced Roster Is a Game-Changer
In Game 2 of the Knicks series, Pascal Siakam dropped 39 points, grabbed 5 rebounds, and dished out 3 assists. Meanwhile, Haliburton had a modest 14 points but added 11 assists and 8 rebounds. Off the bench, T.J. McConnell contributed a crucial 10 points. This underlines the team’s depth, even without a traditional “superstar.” If Indiana can win at least one of the next two games at their Gainbridge Fieldhouse and take a 3-1 lead, that could be enough to book a spot in the NBA Finals. As long as injuries are avoided, the Pacers might just pull off a miracle and go all the way.
Even if they fall short, what they’ve already achieved marks a major step forward for the franchise—and it’s a fantastic development for the NBA as a whole.
