By Matija Šerić
We are in the midst of the Christmas shopping frenzy happening across much of the world. But the biggest shopping mania, of course, is nowhere else but in the United States. Americans, this year like every year, are buying Christmas trees, ornaments, lights, various other decorations, as well as high-tech products such as laptops, smartphones, and gaming consoles. Yet, in the capitalist paradise—which the U.S. may once have been—things are far from perfect today.
Life in America Isn’t a Fairytale
A survey recently conducted by NORC (the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago) and the Associated Press (AP) shows that Americans aren’t exactly thriving. A large majority of respondents, 87 percent, report noticing unusually high prices in recent months for basic groceries, public utilities (electricity, water), fuel, and Christmas gifts.
Many Americans will see their holiday celebrations somewhat spoiled by these inflated prices. To celebrate the season in a dignified and festive way, many will have to dip into their savings, as they simply cannot cover all expenses from salaries eaten away by inflation. Although there were high economic expectations for Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January, the unconventional businessman-president has yet to fully deliver.
Inflation is a big challenge for the US
The American Economy Remains in Crisis
According to NORC and AP, most Americans believe the U.S. economy is stuck in a rut with no quick or easy way out. About half of Americans say it is harder than usual this year to afford holiday gifts, while a similar number are postponing major purchases or cutting spending on non-essential items. Increasingly, Americans are buying food, clothing, shoes, and Christmas gifts on installment plans or some form of credit, as this is the only way to stay liquid. Many citizens are “killed” by high interest rates. Last year, the average loan rate was 5.15%, while this year it is 3.89%. Specifically, 30-year mortgage rates are around 5.99–6.22%, and 15-year rates range from 5.37–5.54%. That is no small matter.
Rising Prices Empty American Pockets
Although Trump promised during his campaign to reduce shelf prices and increase Americans’ purchasing power, this has yet to materialize. The dangerous phenomenon of inflation, which emerged during the COVID-19 crisis, has never left the U.S. In 2022, it stood at 8%, in 2023 between 3.3 and 4.1%, and in 2024 at 2.9%. The average inflation rate across the U.S. for 2025 is around 3%, which is not negligible. Inflation is clearly the biggest domestic political problem for Trump’s administration, just as it was for Biden’s. This economic “disease” does the most damage to Trump and his government. Joe Biden had an average approval rating of 42% during his presidency, and Trump currently sits at 41.5%. Empty or insufficiently full wallets strongly anger Americans, who have grown accustomed to (extravagantly) spending during better times, and they blame the government for this.
Trump’s Tariffs Bring Further Price Increases
A distinctive feature of Trump’s presidency has been insisting on high tariffs in foreign trade, particularly toward the EU (15%), China (34%), India (25%), Canada (35%), Mexico (25%), Brazil (40%), and other countries. Ultimately, it is ordinary consumers who feel the highest impact. Corporations eventually pass new high costs for storage and distribution onto their customers. High tariffs in international trade have further fueled inflation and caused widespread concern among Americans about what tomorrow may bring.
The president persistently claims that “there is no inflation” and that the American economy is thriving, while openly expressing dissatisfaction that the public perceives the situation very differently. “When will people realize what’s happening? When will polls reflect the greatness of America at this moment and how bad it was just a year ago?” Trump asked in a December 11 post on Truth Social. Clearly, it will take some time before Americans are convinced they “live better.” At the moment, that is not true. Two-thirds of adult Americans (68%) still say the country’s economy is “poor,” an unchanged figure from December of last year, just a month before Trump’s return to office.
Midterm Elections 2026 – Possibly a Turning Point
If a convincing majority of Americans continues to believe the economy is struggling, it will not bode well for Trump and the Republican Party. On November 3, 2026, the midterm elections for the U.S. Congress will take place, and voters will punish those in power if no improvements occur. If Democrats gain the majority in the House of Representatives (all 435 seats) and the Senate (35 of 100 seats up for election), it will be bad for Trump, who would be limited in decision-making without Congress. To prevent this, Republican officials have confirmed plans to send Trump on a nationwide campaign next year. Through his public appearances, he will have to convince Americans that their situation is better than it really is. Given Trump’s ability to captivate large masses, this strategy may yield some results. However, it would be far better if he implemented economic policies that genuinely raise living standards in the U.S.
Trump’s Message: Fewer Toys and Pencils for Kids
There is currently no indication that this will happen. Trump emphasized that the benefits of his policies would only begin to show significant effects next year. This week in Pennsylvania, he justified price increases caused by his tariffs by suggesting that Americans should buy fewer toys and pencils for children—a statement that did not go over well even with staunch MAGA supporters.
Some Americans are canceling Christmas because of high prices
About Half of Americans Opt for the Cheapest Products
Surveys show that half of Americans tend to choose the lowest-priced products when shopping, while four out of ten rely more on their savings than usual. Democrats are more likely than Republicans to cut costs or look for the best deals, but many Republicans also spend less than usual. Roughly four out of ten Republicans look for the lowest prices, while a similar number reduce spending on non-essential items.
To raise their living standards, Americans must work multiple jobs or find better-paying positions, which is not easy. The U.S. labor market is unable to create new jobs. The average unemployment rate this year is just over 4%. Americans are not optimistic about the future. About four out of ten adults expect next year to be economically tougher than this one. Three out of ten think conditions will remain largely unchanged, while only about two out of ten believe things will improve (last year, four out of ten were optimistic), with Republicans being more optimistic.
Americans Will Still Spend for the Holidays
Despite all these negatives, the Christmas shopping frenzy is happening in the U.S. this year as well. According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), total holiday spending is expected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time this year. Spending in November and December 2025 could rise by 3.7–4.2% compared to last year. Consumers are expected to spend an average of $890.49 per person on holiday gifts, food, decorations, and other seasonal items. NRF estimates that retailers will hire between 265,000 and 365,000 seasonal workers, reflecting a slower labor market. Last year, 442,000 seasonal workers were employed during the holidays. Retail workers find the advent period especially challenging due to the heavy influx of shoppers, but that comes with the territory.
Despite economic challenges, Americans will indulge themselves during Christmas and enjoy shopping for everything imaginable. Thoughts about 2026 will come later—when the time is right. That may be good in some ways, but the problems will not disappear. Trump and his economic team within the MAGA movement will have to come up with solutions—and soon—if they want to remain popular with their voters.
References:
https://www.tradecomplianceresourcehub.com/2025/12/11/trump-2-0-tariff-tracker/
https://www.ctpost.com/living/article/the-holiday-shopping-season-comes-with-tons-of-21232264.php
