After a dramatic and unpredictable 35th round of the Croatian Football League (HNL), it is still unclear who will be crowned champion of Croatia. In fact, the title can be won by any of the three contenders: Rijeka, Dinamo, or Hajduk — a situation rarely seen not only in Croatia (last time was in 1996) but also in the rest of the football world. Rijeka is in the best position, although they face a tough opponent in the final round, Slaven Belupo. If Rijeka slips up, Dinamo has great chances as heavy favorites against Varaždin. If both clubs stumble, Hajduk could take the title against a faltering Šibenik. But let’s not dive into detailed speculations on who can become champion.
We need to look beneath the surface and be completely honest: nobody this season truly deserves to be crowned the “glorious” champion of Croatia. Why? There are plenty of reasons.
Better Leagues Elsewhere
It’s important to emphasize that a three-way fight for the title in the last round does not necessarily mean the league is weak, as is the case with the HNL. In Italy’s Serie A in the 2001-02 season, Inter, Juventus, and Roma were all in contention, with Juventus eventually winning with 71 points in 34 rounds. In Spain’s La Liga in 2006-07, Barcelona, Real Madrid, and Sevilla were neck-and-neck in the final rounds before the royal club secured the title with 76 points. Those were competitive seasons in strong leagues where top clubs didn’t have their best campaigns and couldn’t create a large points gap.
The Grim Croatian Reality
In the HNL, the situation is completely different. The tight competition among the top three teams is not a sign of the league’s improvement or increased competitiveness, as some analysts enthusiastically claim. On the contrary, such a battle, where the champion will be the team that drops the fewest points, is a consequence of the decline in quality of the leading Croatian clubs and the league as a whole.
Whoever wins the league will be a quasi-champion — a “champion” only in name, lacking the qualities of a true champion such as high points tally, excellent play, solid defense, effective attack, or a top coach. The new HNL champion will not earn respect in Croatia, the region, or European football; rather, it will symbolize mediocrity that has taken over Croatian domestic football. Instead of progress, we have witnessed stagnation in the HNL for years, masked by successes of the Croatian national team and the “never more dramatic” title races. Yes, the HNL has been point-wise uncertain in recent years, but only because Dinamo has had some poor seasons — and this year it reached its peak.
Statistics Reveal a Painful Truth
There is a saying that statistics never lie. After 36 rounds, statistics cannot lie. This 2024-25 season, the champion will be a team with only 65, 63, or even 62 points. Just glance at recent seasons and see how many points the champions had. Last season, Dinamo won the title with 82 points, and in previous years (from 2023 back to 2018), Dinamo took the title with 81, 79, 85, 80, 92, and 73 points. Rijeka won its only title in 2017 with 88 points. So, looking at the last seven seasons, the weakest performance was Dinamo’s 73 points in 2018 — still 8 points higher than this year’s champion (65 in the best case).
If Dinamo had an average season or Rijeka an above-average one, they would have won convincingly by 15-20 points. That’s undeniable. Even the runners-up had more points than this year’s champion. Last year Rijeka had 74 points, Hajduk 71 in 2023, 72 the year before, and Osijek 77 in 2021. This season’s champion will realistically be on the level of a third-place team — Hajduk last year recorded 68 points from third place.
Failures of Top Clubs in Europe
A champion with such a low points total would be justified only if the league’s clubs had progressed — but that’s not the case. The best measure of league quality is the performance of Croatian teams in Europe. Dinamo had a turbulent but solid European season, while Hajduk was eliminated in the first round of the Conference League by Ružomberok, failing to score in two games. Rijeka was knocked out by Ljubljana’s Olimpija, which looked like Manchester City compared to Rijeka. Osijek lost to Azerbaijan’s Zira, who then suffered a 6-0 defeat by Cyprus’ Omonia.
Elite Teams’ Oscillations and Failures
Even domestically, Dinamo, Hajduk, and Rijeka dropped points against bottom-table teams like Gorica, Lokomotiva, and Šibenik. Huge oscillations in form and disappointing results against objectively weaker teams confirm the lack of quality at the top of the league. In a season when no one showed consistency either in Europe or at home, the title feels more like a technical formality than a quality crown.
Wrong Sports Policies
Inconsistent performances on the pitch are the result of what club managements do — or fail to do. None of the top four clubs have shown a clear long-term club development strategy. Constant coaching changes, improvisation in squad policy, poor scouting, and failed transfers have weakened the strongest clubs. By the end, the weakness of Croatian football’s elite became clear. Dinamo chose a new president favored by fans, fired three coaches imposed by media, and replaced the “creative” sporting director and board members. The result: the worst season in 20 years. Hajduk brought in expensive Gennaro Gattuso, dismissed promising sporting director Nikola Kalinić, bought some costly reinforcements — but progress did not come.
At Osijek, sporting director José Boto and coach Federico Coppitelli brought a desperate fight for survival. Damir Mišković sold Rijeka’s best players mid-season: captain Ivan Smolčić, Marco Pašalić, and Niko Galešić. Instead of raising the league’s level, management failures became a brake on the entire HNL development. In short, poor sports policies at Dinamo, Hajduk, Rijeka, and Osijek explain why no one has managed to reach the 70-point threshold a champion realistically should have.
Inefficient Attacks and Leaky Defenses
Offensive play often boiled down to individual attempts, lacking recognizable style or rehearsed moves. There was a lack of chemistry between players (bad interpersonal relationships), combination play, and timely off-ball movements — fundamental features of modern football. Many matches were poor in chances, without clear game plans, with lots of back-passes to the last defender or goalkeeper, as if the main goal was not to concede rather than to score. This approach only confirms the lack of creativity and coaching style that would impose an attacking approach.
The situation was only slightly better in defense. Dinamo’s defense was catastrophic, Hajduk’s somewhat better, Rijeka’s best among them. Defenses looked insecure, players poorly positioned, and many mistakes were made. Ordinary crosses into the box were a nightmare for the top four defenses. Even bottom clubs easily created chances and scored. There were rare exceptions like Marko Livaja or Toni Fruk who shone, but they were too few.
A Champion Undeserving of the Title
Whoever becomes champion, by play and points, will not deserve it. They will be simply the best of the worst. There is a danger that the Croatian champion will suffer a heavy defeat in Europe this summer by a marginal European club, like Hajduk did against Debrecen in 2005. Such an outcome would further damage the HNL’s reputation and complicate future European qualifications for Croatian clubs. Instead of a champion symbolizing the quality of the Croatian league, we will have a champion symbolizing mediocrity and stagnation.
The problem of Croatian football is structural (from the Sports Act to club management models), but no one cares — neither politicians, nor the Football Federation leaders, nor the clubs themselves. The main thing is that people are entertained by guessing who will finish first.
Author: Matija Šerić
Featured image: Wikimedia Commons
