Basketball, and especially the American NBA league, has long been synonymous with elite sports, competition, unpredictability, and top-tier entertainment. Over the past forty years, the NBA has represented the pinnacle of the sport. The trio of superstars—Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant, and LeBron James—are the most responsible for the NBA’s extraordinary rise, making it one of the most recognizable sports franchises in the world, alongside UEFA’s Champions League. However, in the past four to five years, the NBA’s popularity has declined drastically. If current trends continue, the NBA could die out, and with it, basketball as a sport.
Declining Viewership
TV viewership has been declining for years. In the 2010/11 season, games on ABC averaged over 5 million viewers, and the future seemed bright. However, downward trends became more pronounced following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Last season, the average number of viewers dropped to just 1.4 million—a 72% decline. This season, NBA viewership on ESPN has dropped by an additional 28%. Viewership on TNT fell by 25% in the first half of the season. Although some improvements came later, the decline persists compared to last year. Playoffs and NBA Finals have slightly better numbers than the regular season, but even those are seeing a drop in viewership, with fewer people tuning in for the season’s climax. Interestingly, viewers now prefer watching college basketball over the most elite league in the world. The 2022 NBA Finals had 16.8 million viewers, while the 2023 NCAA championship game attracted an impressive 18.1 million.
The Three-Point Problem
Over the past 20 years, the league has seen an explosion in three-point shooting. The number of three-point attempts per game has skyrocketed from an average of 15.8 in the 2004/05 season to an astounding 37.5 in the current season. Each year, the number increases. Last season, the average was 35.1; in the 2012/13 season, it was 20; and in the 1993/94 season, it was just 9.9. The primary culprit for the drastic increase in three-point shooting is Stephen Curry. Curry and his teammates Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and Andre Iguodala won NBA championships for the Golden State Warriors in 2015, 2017, and 2018, primarily by hitting an enormous number of three-pointers. Everyone else decided to copy them—but without success.
Despite the increase in three-point attempts, the league-wide three-point shooting percentage has remained unchanged, hovering around 35%. The inefficiency beyond the arc is not just a problem for individual teams but for the league as a whole. The flood of three-pointers has significantly diminished traditional basketball gameplay. Post-play, mid-range shooting, pick-and-roll, offensive rebounding, off-ball movement, and fast breaks—key elements of the game—have suffered greatly due to excessive reliance on three-point shooting. Mid-range shots and post-play have been hit the hardest and are now rarely seen. Even fast breaks often end with players pulling up for three-pointers instead of going for a layup. Basketball has turned into a “run-and-gun” contest.
Many basketball experts are critical of the current state of the game. Shaquille O’Neal and B.J. Armstrong have described modern basketball as a predictable and mechanical repetition of three-point shots, where entertainment is often sacrificed in favor of statistics and analytics. While this is still basketball, it is an inversion of the real thing.
Weak Defenses
Weak defenses in the NBA reduce the intensity and unpredictability of games, making the gameplay too predictable and purely offensive-oriented. When teams regularly score 130+ points without real defensive resistance, the competitive spirit and authenticity of basketball that older fans loved are lost. This can lead to a decline in interest among viewers who appreciate a balanced game, while younger audiences, although enjoying spectacular moves, quickly lose interest if every game feels the same. The NBA is becoming more of an entertainment show than a serious competition, which damages its popularity.
Strict Officiating
Strict refereeing, particularly the excessive calling of technical fouls, slows down the game’s pace and makes it less exciting to watch. Too many referee interventions over minor infractions create frustration among players and fans, as they disrupt the natural flow of the game. The excessive strictness of referees reduces interest in matches. Fans want to see dynamic basketball, not endless pauses while referees review controversial plays on the monitor.
Lack of Team Rivalries
A major issue is the lack of rivalries between teams. Players typically stay with a club for only a few years before moving to another team that is historically a rival of their previous one. A recent major trade that saw Luka Dončić move from the Dallas Mavericks to the LA Lakers, while Anthony Davis went the other way, is a prime example. Dončić was the face of the Mavericks for the past seven years and was the main reason they reached the 2024 NBA Finals. However, overnight, he was traded for Davis, who is already past 30 and six years older than Dončić. There are suspicions that the trade was prearranged to allow LeBron James and Dončić to build a new superstar dynasty with the Lakers. Similar trades, which fans saw as betrayals, have been numerous.
James Harden was one of the most important players in Houston Rockets history, but his request to leave for the Brooklyn Nets in 2021 enraged Rockets fans. He later moved to the Philadelphia 76ers and Los Angeles Clippers, showing that money was his primary motivation. In 2016, Kevin Durant left the Oklahoma City Thunder for the Golden State Warriors. The fan reaction was overwhelmingly negative, as Durant abandoned the Thunder after they were on the verge of winning a title. Moreover, his move to a team that had won 73 games the previous season infuriated fans. Many labeled Durant a “traitor” because his decision to join the strongest team in the league reduced competition and made it easier for him to win a championship.
Author: Matija Šerić
Featured image: Unsplash
