In Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals, played on May 31st, Indiana defeated the New York Knicks at home with a score of 125-108, clinched the series 4-2, and secured a spot in the grand NBA Finals. There, they’ll face Oklahoma City. The Thunder had already eliminated the Timberwolves at home three days earlier with a 124-94 win, sealing their series 4-1. For the first time in history, we will witness an NBA Finals between the Thunder and the Pacers. The clash begins on June 5 and promises to be a real treat for basketball aficionados.
Who will win their first NBA title?
Oklahoma was last in the Finals in 2012, and Indiana way back in 2000. Both clubs are among the minority of active teams that have never won an NBA title. Considering how long both franchises have waited for a chance at championship rings, we can expect immense pressure from club management, fans, and the media. Yet there’s no doubt the players on both sides will show professionalism. These are two excellent teams.
A Finals of “small teams”
The Indiana-Oklahoma Finals show that basketball has once again triumphed. The NBA Playoffs are not scripted (read: rigged), as some observers have claimed. This year’s postseason, in terms of game quality and excitement, is one of the best of the past decade. The biggest issue has been injuries, which have somewhat disrupted the show. While neutral basketball fans are happy with the Finals featuring so-called “small-market teams,” the establishment (NBA leadership, media, and sponsors) is far less thrilled. In fact, the executives are disappointed.
Lack of superstars, major franchises, and big cities
First, the Finals don’t feature any superstar on the level of LeBron James or Luka Dončić. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Tyrese Haliburton are the best players on their respective teams, but they haven’t (at least not yet) attained true superstar status. Second, neither finalist belongs to the league’s most popular clubs. Indiana and Oklahoma are well-established teams, but they lack massive fanbases beyond their home regions, let alone globally. They cannot be compared in popularity to the Boston Celtics or LA Lakers. Neither team is in the top 20 TV markets in the NBA.
Third, neither Indianapolis nor Oklahoma City are major cities. They have populations of about 879,000 and 702,000 respectively. NBA officials and journalists won’t be able to enjoy the rich tourist offerings as they might have if the Finals were played in Chicago (2.6 million) or New York (8.2 million). All of this means the Finals will likely bring in less revenue from arena attendance, TV viewership, hotels, restaurants, shopping, and other expenditures.
A win for basketball over money
The Finals between “small-market” teams show that, despite commercial interests, the NBA can still offer a sporting narrative where meritocracy—not just profit—prevails. The success of Indiana and Oklahoma reminds us that winning teams can be built through patience, solid organization, and smart roster construction, without relying on megastars. While the Finals may be weaker in marketing terms, it’s more authentic from a basketball standpoint and deserves praise.
Clash of fantastic starting lineups
It will be an intriguing matchup of starting fives. The Thunder’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, and Isaiah Hartenstein will square off against the Pacers’ Tyrese Haliburton, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Pascal Siakam, and Myles Turner. The duel between Holmgren and Turner under the basket could be particularly interesting due to their defensive prowess and ability to shoot from outside the paint. Also, the role of defensive specialists like Dort and Nesmith could be crucial in slowing down the opposing playmakers and shooters.
SGA vs. Haliburton
The Finals will show who is more capable, skillful, and decisive among these rising shooting stars. Will Haliburton outplay SGA, or vice versa? Both are leaders of their teams on and off the court, true engines of play, and their direct duels could be the decisive factor in the series. We’ll see who displays more creativity, sets the pace of the game better, and dares to take responsibility in key moments. SGA will aim to prove that his 2024–25 season MVP award was no fluke and will look to add a Finals MVP to his resume.
In the playoffs so far, SGA has averaged 29.8 points, 5.7 rebounds, 6.9 assists, and 1.6 steals in 16 games. On the other side, Haliburton has averaged 18.8 points, 5.7 rebounds, 9.8 assists, and 1.4 steals over 17 games. It’s expected that Gilgeous-Alexander will remain the Thunder’s main offensive weapon, relying on his inspired one-on-one play. Haliburton’s brilliant assists will be the most important part of his game. If he continues to distribute efficiently against perhaps the league’s toughest defense, the Pacers will have a chance to upset the favored Thunder.
The importance of the bench
The Finals will reveal which team has the better bench. Both Indiana and Oklahoma boast deep rosters with bench players who regularly play important minutes and hit key shots. Players like T.J. McConnell, Obi Toppin, and Thomas Bryant for the Pacers, and Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, and Aaron Wiggins for the Thunder, could become the quiet heroes of the series. Depth and energy off the bench often make the difference in grueling Finals matchups.
A chess match between two elite coaches
This series features a showdown between two of the NBA’s top coaching minds: Rick Carlisle and Mark Daigneault. Carlisle’s key strengths are his rich experience, tactical flexibility, and winning pedigree. Daigneault is a modern basketball mastermind who emphasizes the development of young players and a fast, aggressive, and efficient style of play. Their coaching duel could have just as much impact on the outcome of the series as the players’ individual performances.
Thunder are the favorites
According to sportsbooks, the Thunder are heavy favorites to win the NBA title. Their odds are -750, while the Pacers are at +525. In American betting terms, a negative line denotes the favorite. A bettor would need to wager $750 to win $100 if the Thunder win the title. Conversely, a $100 bet on the Pacers would yield $525 if they become champions. This translates to an 85% chance for Oklahoma and only 15% for Indiana.
Don’t count out the Pacers
Personally, I wouldn’t be that extreme. The Thunder are indeed the favorites due to an outstanding regular season (68-14), playoff performance, and home-court advantage at the Paycom Center. After all, in the two regular season matchups this year, the Thunder defeated the Pacers (120-114 on December 26 and 132-111 on March 29). However, the Pacers have been steadily improving as the season progresses. Convincing wins over the Bucks, Cavs, and a strong showing against the Knicks give them the right to challenge the Thunder.
I’d give the Thunder a 55-45 edge. If they win the first two games, that will be a big advantage. The Pacers would then be under massive pressure to win at least one game at their Gainbridge Fieldhouse. At 3-1 in the series, there’s almost no coming back. But the Pacers have proven to be road warriors throughout this year’s playoffs. If they can do it again in the Finals, they’ll be close to a shock win. In any case, we’re in for a very exciting, unpredictable, and dramatic Finals series with a thriller-like character.
Author: Matija Šerić
