By Matija Šerić
Over the past twenty years, the influence of the Republic of Poland in Europe has significantly increased. Although Poland was once synonymous with backwardness, poverty, repression, and emigration during the Cold War, since the introduction of democracy and a multiparty system in 1989, Poland has transformed into an exemplary state. Today, Poland is associated with sovereignty, independence, and sustainable economic progress.
Furthermore, it could be argued that the Polish national project has not only succeeded but has surpassed expectations – the modern Polish state is a powerful European, economic, and military force that can rival traditional European powers like Germany, France, and the United Kingdom in many aspects. The typical balance of power on the Old Continent has started to shift.
Political Power
Poland has become a political power thanks to its strategic importance within the European Union and NATO. Poland holds a significant geopolitical position, located in the heart of Europe and bordering Russia, Germany, the Czech Republic, Belarus, and Ukraine. Its geographic location as a buffer zone between great empires has shaped Polish history, with Poland often facing pressure from powerful states like Austria-Hungary, Germany, and Russia. After the collapse of the USSR, Poland pursued Euro-Atlantic integration, joining NATO in 1999 and the European Union in 2004, further strengthening its political position in Europe.
In the past two decades, Poland has become a leader in promoting the interests of Eastern European countries within the EU and NATO. As Russian influence grows in the former Soviet Union and seeks further expansion (e.g., interventions in Moldova, Georgia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Syria, etc.), Poland positions itself as a strong opponent of assertive Putin-led Russia, becoming a pillar of NATO on Europe’s eastern flank. Warsaw has emerged as a key U.S. partner in Eastern Europe. Its logistical and military support to Ukraine, along with substantial humanitarian aid to Ukrainian refugees during the Russian aggression in Ukraine in 2022, has strengthened Poland’s position within the Western bloc. Its involvement in the Ukrainian war has solidified Poland’s reputation as a regional power in Central and Eastern Europe.
This prominence is evident through the launch of the Three Seas Initiative – a multilateral forum aimed at enhancing transport infrastructure, energy security, and economic cooperation among 13 countries between the Baltic, Black, and Adriatic Seas. Given its size (40 million people), economic strength, and political influence, Poland aims to leverage the initiative to strengthen its international position and that of member states. Polish politicians hold significant sway within Western institutions. Without a strong Poland, the EU and NATO’s eastern border cannot be sustained, nor can Ukraine be supported in its war against Russia. American policymakers, aware of this, are strong advocates for the Three Seas Initiative.
Economic Power
Following the introduction of democracy in the late 1980s, the Polish economy underwent an effective and swift transformation from a planned economy to a market-based one. Unlike most socialist states in Eastern Europe, Poland avoided the pitfalls of extreme capitalism and privatization plunder. Leszek Balcerowicz, the first non-communist finance minister, introduced a “shock therapy plan” aimed at a rapid and radical economic transition. This laid the groundwork for Poland’s economic miracle, which has continued from the early 1990s to the present. The transition was based on structural reforms, privatization, fiscal discipline, opening to foreign investment, and integration with global markets.
Prices were freed from state control, making market demand the key factor in pricing. High inflation was managed through controlled wage growth and reduced government spending. A new tax system was introduced to stimulate entrepreneurship and increase budget revenue. Poland attracted foreign investments, which were crucial for modernizing industries, creating jobs, and transferring technology. After joining the EU in 2004, foreign investments increased further, integrating Poland into global supply chains, especially in sectors like the automotive industry, electronics, and consumer goods.
The Polish economy is growing faster than wealthier European countries. Between 2000 and 2010, Poland’s nominal GDP grew at an average of 6-8% annually, and from 2010 to 2020, it grew at around 5% per year. Poland has become a hub for modern industries such as lithium battery production (second in the world after China), as well as the automotive, chemical, textile, and food industries. Many global auto brands, such as Volkswagen, Fiat, and Opel, have production facilities in Poland, providing jobs and technological advancement. Poland is also a leading producer of household appliances, electrical devices, and furniture in Europe, further strengthening its position in the international market. The country even has a trade surplus with Germany.
Besides traditional industries, Poland is investing in the modernization of all sectors. The country has a quality education system and regularly ranks higher than Germany, France, or the United Kingdom in mathematics, technology, and engineering. Consequently, many international tech companies like Google, Microsoft, and IBM have research centers in Poland, adding to the local labor market’s dynamism. One of the most crucial elements of Poland’s economic growth has been significant infrastructure investments.
Poland uses EU funds to modernize its roads, railways, seaports, and airports. Between 2014 and 2020, Poland received nearly 86 billion euros from EU funds, with a substantial portion allocated to infrastructure. Living standards in cities like Warsaw, Krakow, or Wroclaw are now similar to those in London or Berlin. The Polish diaspora is returning home due to improved quality of life, numerous job opportunities, and lower living costs compared to Western Europe.
Military Power
Poland’s military strength has been bolstered by continuous substantial financial investments in the armed forces. As a country with a long history of warfare, Poland in the 21st century has been intensively modernizing its military to ensure long-term sustainability. Poland’s strategic location between Western Europe and Russia, along with its NATO membership, makes it a key country for EU security. In the last ten years, Poland has carried out a comprehensive modernization of its armed forces in cooperation with NATO partners (especially the U.S.) to enhance its defense capabilities.
The Law and Justice (PiS) governments, in power from 2015 to 2023, initiated unprecedented military procurements, ordering thousands of tanks, self-propelled howitzers, fighter jets, rocket launchers, and new air defense systems. Most contracts were signed with the U.S. and South Korea. The acquisition of American F-35 fighter jets in 2020 marked a strategic shift for the Polish air force, giving Poland a technological edge in air defense. The purchase of Abrams tanks from the U.S. also strengthened the ground forces. Contracts were signed in 2021, with the first tanks arriving this year. The Patriot air defense systems, delivered in 2022, along with plans to develop domestic missile capabilities, significantly enhance Poland’s defense shield.
Poland spent 4.12% of its GDP on defense last year, the highest among NATO members (the U.S. spends 3.38% of its GDP on defense) and more than double the NATO guideline of 2%. Although the new government led by Donald Tusk from the Civic Platform promised to revise some military agreements, it continues to invest in the military. The current government plans to invest 10 billion zlotys in fortifying Poland’s eastern border, with Prime Minister Tusk calling on other EU countries to increase their defense spending.
The Future is Polish
In summary, the Republic of Poland is an example of a successful state, demonstrating that within the EU and NATO, one can not only maintain autonomy and independence but also become a significant European power. Poland is not Germany or France, whose status as a European power is guaranteed, but through thoughtful and effective policies, it is gaining strength domestically and internationally. Living in Poland could soon surpass the quality of life in many Western European countries. Naturally, this concerns many German and French politicians who believe that the EU’s locomotive should be driven solely by Berlin and Paris.
Warsaw has asserted itself as a factor that cannot be ignored. Excellent relations with the U.S. further strengthen Poland’s position in the EU and NATO. The Trump presidency could further solidify Poland’s position, as Trump promotes an independent and self-sustaining path for each state in the international arena and adherence to NATO’s guideline of spending 2% of GDP on defense. Poland meets both criteria and has a bright future ahead.
