By Matija Šerić
A year has recently passed since the most serious assassination attempt on Donald Trump. On July 13 last year, in the town of Butler, Pennsylvania, during a Trump campaign rally, the would-be assassin Thomas Matthew Crooks fired at the future president with a semi-automatic AR-15 rifle. Trump survived the assassination attempt either by sheer luck or divine providence, depending on your point of view. A piece of paper on illegal immigration saved his life.
The July assassination attempt changed everything
At the last moment, Trump moved his head, and the bullet only grazed his ear. Crooks killed one spectator and wounded two others before being immediately taken down by a Secret Service sniper. The motives behind the assassination attempt remain unclear to this day. The assassin was a registered Republican who had also donated money to the Democrats. Regardless of the attacker’s motives, it is now clear that the July 13 attack represented a turning point in the 2024 presidential campaign.
Within the next ten days, Joe Biden was forced to withdraw from the campaign due to poor health and a disastrous performance in the June presidential debate. He was replaced by Kamala Harris as the Democratic presidential candidate. Despite initial enthusiasm among liberals and progressives, it soon became clear that Harris was not up to the task. Numerous gaffes and a lack of a clear vision for America’s future prevented her from rallying the masses around her.
Video shows moment of Trump assassination attempt at rally
The assassination attempt – a catalyst for Trump’s radicalization
The assassination attempt was a “godsend” for Trump, and his popularity skyrocketed. He managed to rally a large number of supporters who were neither part of the MAGA movement nor Republicans. For example, after the attack, tech giant Elon Musk publicly endorsed him and invested $250 million in Trump’s campaign. Thanks to broad support, Trump triumphed in the November elections. Some analysts claim that the July assassination attempt strongly radicalized him. They go so far as to claim he is no longer the same man. This is an exaggeration. Trump did not completely reverse his policies before and after the attack, but his daily actions clearly show that the attempt on his life further radicalized him. More accurately, it accelerated a process of radicalization that had already been underway for quite some time.
The former darling of the establishment
Trump was once a darling of the American establishment and a welcome guest not only in right-wing conservative but also in left-liberal American media. For example, he appeared on The Oprah Winfrey Show in 1988, discussing his business ventures and possible presidential run, and again in 2011 with members of his family. Oprah Winfrey, a liberal media icon who openly supported Barack Obama and whose name was even mentioned as a potential Democratic presidential candidate in 2016 and 2020, once welcomed Trump warmly. Trump was also frequently seen in the company of liberal American celebrities like Beyoncé, Russell Simmons, Whoopi Goldberg, and even Hillary and Bill Clinton. In other words, Trump was once a darling of the American establishment.
The process of radicalization
Everything changed with his candidacy in 2015 when he became a radical opponent of the American “deep state,” or more precisely, its liberal wing. As the attacks from political opponents and the media intensified over the years (especially regarding alleged connections with Russia), Trump became increasingly radical. His defeat in the disputed 2020 election further radicalized him, as some of his associates ended up in prison or in court over illegal activities (Michael Cohen, Steve Bannon, Roger Stone, Paul Manafort, and others).
Trump’s presence further divided Republicans and Democrats into two separate, de facto warring camps. The Democrats tried to impeach him in Congress several times and attempted to bar him from running in the 2024 elections (citing the 14th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, which prohibits individuals involved in insurrection against the U.S. from holding federal office). However, Trump was always saved by Republicans and the U.S. Supreme Court, where he had placed his loyalists.
“Divine intervention” enters MAGA mythology
People within Trump’s inner circle, such as Republican Senator Lindsey Graham from South Carolina, claim that Trump truly changed after the assassination attempt. Although he remains the same person, they believe he has become more cautious and grateful, convinced that God saved his life so that he could save America. The belief that “divine intervention” spared him has strengthened Trump’s determination to implement his “America First” political agenda.
Although July 13, 2024, was the most terrifying day of Trump’s life (a day most people would prefer to forget), he constantly remembers it. It serves as a reminder and guiding idea in his second term. He has decorated the White House and his golf clubs with artwork depicting the moment after the shooting, when he stood up, raised his fist, and shouted “Fight, fight, fight” to emphasize his defiance. A photograph of this moment is displayed in the White House lobby, and he has also placed a bronze sculpture of the same scene in the Oval Office. Trump supporters wear T-shirts, hats, badges, and memorabilia featuring motifs from the assassination attempt, which has now entered MAGA movement mythology.
Trump often states that he turned his head at the exact moment to look at his “favorite chart in history” on illegal crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border, believing that this saved his life. He is also reminded of the attempt by occasional pain in his right ear. Trump was also affected by another failed assassination attempt on September 15 while he was playing golf in Florida. After that, he stopped playing golf during the campaign and further tightened his security.
Trump opens up about assassination attempt one year later
Escalation of internal conflicts
Trump’s further radicalization is evident in the decisions he has made during his second term. Although he made highly controversial decisions during his first term, in the first six months of his second term, they have become more frequent and even more incendiary, both in domestic and foreign policy. He is trying to install his loyalists in as many courts and government agencies as possible, whether legally or illegally, cutting funding to government departments he dislikes and threatening to abolish them (the Department of Education, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)).
Together with his recent ally Elon Musk, he has issued mass layoffs of federal employees (by June 26, at least 128,709 workers were fired or targeted for dismissal), and he openly battles respected American institutions such as universities, courts, museums, while also attacking media outlets, law firms, and lawyers involved in cases against him. Without rational explanation, he has intensified attacks on prominent public figures critical of him, including Seth Meyers, Stephen Colbert, Bruce Springsteen, and Taylor Swift.
The revival of American imperialism
He has begun imposing extremely high tariffs not only on hostile countries like Mexico, China, and Vietnam but also on trade with partner nations in the European Union, as well as Asian and African allies. He openly calls for American imperialism and seeks to annex the Panama Canal, Canada, Greenland, and Gaza. He has even gone so far as to try to influence the direction of the Roman Catholic Church. The pinnacle of this was giving Israel the green light to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities and involving the U.S. in the Twelve-Day War. American bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities is illegal not only under the U.N. Charter but also under the U.S. Constitution, as only Congress can authorize the U.S. to enter a war, not the president.
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Trump and a new dose of danger
It is evident that, after last year’s failed assassination attempts, Donald Trump has become more impatient and aggressive in his domestic and foreign policies, as confirmed by Republican Congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna from Florida. Above all, the 47th U.S. president has become more subjective, that is, less rational. The decisions of the Trump administration are now more hasty and dangerous than during his first term.
Trump will not become a dictator because he cannot break American institutions, but he introduces a dangerous new dose of risk that America and the world must face every day. This danger could also mean new conflicts around the world, which continue to smolder despite Trump’s campaign promises of peace. As trust in the government declines, political violence in America could worsen, and the world could become the stage for new wars.
