Starting from June 13, the latest spiral of conflict in the Middle East has erupted. Coincidentally or not, Friday the 13th truly lived up to its reputation as an unlucky day. That day, Israel launched drone, missile, and bomb attacks on Iran, prompting a retaliatory strike by Iran. An undeclared war between two powerful states has begun and is raging full force. What consequences the world will feel remains uncertain.
However, the consequences of an Iranian-Israeli war could be catastrophic. Already, the citizens of Iran and Israel are suffering terribly. Innocent people are dying by the hundreds, and thousands are wounded. Dark clouds of war have loomed over the Middle East, and they may grow even darker—pitch black. Why? There is a real threat of the use of the most terrifying weapon of all: nuclear weapons.
Nuclear Annihilation – A 2025 Option
One of the justifications used by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for initiating the conflict was the claim that Iran is on the verge of acquiring nuclear weapons, which it could use against Israel as soon as it becomes capable. Thus, according to Netanyahu, the Israeli strike was a preventive blow to the “head of Iran’s nuclear program” aimed at preempting the enemy.
This raises one of the most critical questions: is there a real possibility that Iran would launch a nuclear bomb the moment it possesses one? Even more pressing is the question: is Israel prepared to use its long-held nuclear weapons against Iran? Unfortunately, in June 2025, nuclear Armageddon is not just a theory—it has become a matter of realpolitik.
Israel’s Nuclear Capabilities
Before analyzing the likelihood of nuclear weapon use, it’s important to consider the nuclear capacities of each warring country. Israel has possessed nuclear weapons for decades—a well-known open secret. According to the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation and the Nuclear Threat Initiative, Israel holds at least 90 nuclear warheads and has enough fissile material to produce hundreds more. Only nine countries in the world possess nuclear weapons. Israel is the second smallest country (after North Korea) among them.
Israel has the capability to launch its nuclear warheads via land-based ballistic missile systems, fighter jets, and submarines.
Documentary about Israeli nuclear programme
Israel’s Nuclear Self-Defense Doctrine
Interestingly, Israel is one of only five countries in the world that has never signed the 1970 United Nations Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which restricts the use of nuclear energy to civilian purposes only. This move is not surprising—had Israel signed the treaty, it would have been obligated to dismantle its nuclear program.
According to the Arms Control Association, Israel secretly developed nuclear weapons capabilities around 1967. By 1973, U.S. authorities were “convinced that Israel possesses nuclear weapons.”
Israel has never used nuclear weapons, though it considered doing so during the Six-Day War in 1967 and the Yom Kippur War in 1973. Remarkably, Israel has never been placed under the U.S. nuclear umbrella, unlike NATO allies in Europe, Japan, Australia, and South Korea. This further supports the idea that Israel maintains nuclear arms for self-protection—and possibly for other strategic reasons.
Iran’s Nuclear Program
According to all credible sources, Iran has not yet developed its own nuclear weapons—but it is well on its way to joining the elite nuclear club. Although Iran has been developing nuclear energy since 1957, its leaders have consistently claimed that the program is for peaceful, civilian use.
Iran began building its nuclear infrastructure during the reign of Shah Reza Pahlavi in the 1960s and 1970s, when it was still an ally of the United States. The program continued after the Islamic Revolution, and many of the facilities are now located underground.
Official Tehran has repeatedly stated the goals of its nuclear program as:
a) meeting the country’s growing energy needs,
b) reducing dependence on fossil fuels (despite Iran’s vast reserves of oil and gas),
c) research and development in medicine (e.g., producing radioisotopes for diagnosis and treatment), and
d) industrial use (e.g., sterilization of food and materials).
Documentary about Iranian nuclear programme
Iran Denies Military Use of Its Nuclear Program
Iran is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), although Western powers often “forget” or deliberately omit this fact. Iran signed the treaty back in 1968. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued a fatwa in the mid-1990s prohibiting the production and use of nuclear weapons. The fatwa was reaffirmed in 2003 after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) expressed doubts about Iran’s intentions.
Interestingly, former U.S. President Barack Obama believed in Khamenei’s fatwa, frequently citing it as justification for signing the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which froze Iran’s nuclear program.
Western Suspicion
Western leaders—especially from the U.S., U.K., and Israel—remain suspicious that Iran’s nuclear program may contain a hidden military component, particularly due to uranium enrichment levels that exceed civilian needs.
It remains unclear how close Iran is to developing a nuclear bomb. In 2023, the IAEA reported finding uranium particles enriched to 83.7% purity at an Iranian facility—close to the threshold needed for a nuclear weapon. Last year, the U.S. shortened Iran’s so-called “breakout time”—the time needed to produce sufficient fissile material for a nuclear weapon—to “one or two weeks.”
Author: Matija Šerić
