Following the 1980 peace treaty with Egypt, through which Cairo recognized Israel’s right to exist, Israel shifted its strategy from the so-called Peripheral Doctrine to the Arab Doctrine, seeking to develop relations with Arab states. Muslims who opposed Egypt’s peace agreement with Israel formed what became known as the “Rejectionist Front” or the “Axis of Resistance,” led by Iran, Syria, and Lebanon.
Iran supported the creation of Hezbollah in Lebanon following the Israeli invasion of the country in 1982. Alongside its partners, Iran carried out assassinations and attacks on Israeli civilians. In response, Israel attempted to neutralize the resistance through cooperation with Arab states, aiming to isolate Iran and weaken its influence in the Middle East. Despite its hostility toward Iran, Israel convinced the Reagan administration to secretly sell weapons to Iran during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, viewing Iraq as the greater evil (the Iran-Contra affair). Israel secretly sold weapons to Iran worth $2 billion. By the late 1980s, Israel considered both Iraq and Iran, exhausted by war, as diminished threats—alongside the USSR, worn down by its war in Afghanistan.
Israeli Efforts to Destabilize Iran
Since the 1990s, Israel has consistently opposed any reconciliation between Western countries and Iran. This was evident during the moderate presidencies of Akbar Rafsanjani (1989–1997), Mohammad Khatami (1997–2005), and Hassan Rouhani (2013–2021). Throughout the 1990s and early 2000s, Israel promoted the American “dual containment” strategy targeting both Iran and Iraq. Later, it persistently advocated for severe U.S., EU, and allied sanctions against Iran.
As the United States prepared to invade Iraq in 2003—based on what were later revealed to be false claims about weapons of mass destruction—some Israeli leaders lobbied for an American military strike on Iran instead. Israel focused intensely on Iran’s nuclear program, which was revealed in 2002 to be more advanced than Tehran had acknowledged to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
Over the years, Iran has blamed Israel for numerous acts of sabotage against its nuclear and military facilities. Tehran regularly announces it has foiled new sabotage attempts. Israel has also targeted Iranian personnel, including several high-profile nuclear scientists. The most infamous assassination occurred in 2020 when top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was killed using a satellite-operated machine gun controlled by artificial intelligence.
The Cold War Between Tehran and Tel Aviv
Israel entered into a fierce struggle with Iran for influence in former Soviet republics, particularly Azerbaijan, forging an alliance with Baku against Tehran. Meanwhile, Iran expanded its presence near Israel, especially in Syria, leveraging the Syrian Civil War that began in 2011.
In Yemen, Iran supported the Houthi rebels, while Israel backed the Saudi-led coalition fighting the Houthis. Over the years, Israel has supported various groups that violently oppose the Iranian government—some of which Tehran classifies as terrorist organizations. These include the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK) organization based in Europe, Sunni groups in southeastern Iran (Sistan and Baluchestan province), and Kurdish armed groups based in Iraqi Kurdistan.
On the other hand, Israel and its Western allies accuse Iran of orchestrating attacks on Israeli targets, including drone strikes on Israeli oil tankers and cyberattacks. Tehran opposes American hegemony in the Middle East, while Israel continually resists any U.S. withdrawal from the region. Iran-linked groups have regularly attacked American bases in Iraq and Syria.
Israel Gains Arab Friends
Over the years, more Arab countries have normalized relations with Israel, even though the country has failed to reach a final settlement with the Palestinians. After Israel normalized ties with Egypt in 1980 and Jordan in 1994, the Abraham Accords in late 2020 led to the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco formally recognizing Israel’s right to exist and establishing diplomatic relations.
Iran strongly opposes such reconciliation, considering it a betrayal of Palestine. Meanwhile, Saudi opposition to Israel has lessened, and secret diplomatic talks on normalization began. Normalization between Riyadh and Tel Aviv was within reach—until it was abruptly halted by Hamas’s surprise attack on southern Israel on October 7.
The Fateful October 7, 2023
In a two-day assault, Hamas militants killed around 1,200 Jews, including over 800 civilians, and took 251 civilians hostage. It was the deadliest attack on Jews since 1945.
A key question is the extent of Iranian involvement in Hamas’s planning and decision to launch the attack. On October 8, The Wall Street Journal reported that Iranian officials helped plan the surprise attack and gave it the “green light.” However, officials from Israel, the U.S., Iran, and even Hamas leadership all denied these accusations. Other experts suggested the evidence for such claims was “scant and contradictory.”
Nonetheless, Iran publicly praised the Hamas assault. Rahim Safavi, advisor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, congratulated Palestinian fighters and reaffirmed Tehran’s support “until the liberation of Palestine and Jerusalem.” According to Iranian government spokesman Ali Bahadori-Jahromi, the incursion “proved that the Zionist regime is more vulnerable than ever and that the initiative lies in the hands of the Palestinian youth.”
Iran’s Strategic Victory
Hamas’s surprise attack marked a strategic victory for Tehran and the Axis of Resistance it leads. It shattered Israel’s sense of security, derailed the possibility of Saudi-Israeli normalization in the near future, and demonstrated the cohesion of Iran-backed non-state actors (Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, Iraqi Shia militias, the Afghan Shia Fatemiyoun Brigade), all of whom challenge the regional status quo.
Four days after the Hamas attack, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi spoke for the first time by phone with Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman. They affirmed their shared goal of “stopping war crimes against Palestine.” On November 11, the two leaders met in person in Riyadh. While the Biden administration had sought to bring Riyadh and Tel Aviv closer and unite Middle Eastern states against Iran, the rapprochement between these two leaders demonstrated opposing trends.
Author: Matija Šerić
Featured image: Wikimedia Commons
